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An oil and gas executive needs to fly from Calgary, Alberta ( airport code YYC ) to Washington - Dulles ( airport code IAD )

An oil and gas executive needs to fly from Calgary, Alberta (airport code YYC) to Washington-Dulles
(airport code IAD) to attend a meeting with lobbyists about the building of a certain pipeline. Because there is
no direct flight from YYC to IAD, this traveler has fly from YYC to a different city, then connect with a flight to
IAD. The traveler has airline options. Airline AA will connect through Dallas, Airline UA will connect through
Chicago, or Airline D which connects through Minneapolis-St.Paul. Taking into their past experiences with
flying with the three airlines in question, this executive hints that the probability of flying with Airline AA is
0.15. The probability they will fly with Airline D is three times more than the probability of flying with Airline
UA. Historical data has shown that 15% of passengers who fly with Airline AA miss their connecting flights in
Dallas. Similarly, 10% of Airline D passengers and 30% of Airline UA passengers miss their connecting flights.

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