An operator at an oil refinery must monitor the conditions in a catalytic reactor based on a combination of analog and digital monitoring systems and rely on their training and experience to ensure that the process is successfully completed and the output product has the desired properties. The operator has recently changed to the night shift, is under emotional stress due to unrelated family problems.

Using the HEART method, develop an estimate of the probability of error for an operation in this situation. Provide a brief justification of your selection of the relevant generic task and each relevant error producing condition.