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An orange grower in Florida faces a dilemma. The weather forecast is for cold weather, and there 15 a 50% chance that the temperature tonight
An orange grower in Florida faces a dilemma. The weather forecast is for cold weather, and there 15 a 50% chance that the temperature tonight will be cold enough to freeze and destroy his entire crop, which is worth $50,000. He can take two possible actions to try to alleviate his loss if the temperature drops. First, he could set burners in the orchard; this would cost $5,000, but he could still expect to incur damage of $17,500. Second, he could set up sprinklers to spray the trees. If the temperature drops, the water would freeze on the fruit and provide some insulation- This method is cheaper ($2,000), but less effective. With the sprinklers, he could expect to incur a loss of $27,500. Apart from the above two actions, he may also choose to not take any action. Find EVPI for the weather conditions (freeze or not). Hint: Set up the problem to minimize the expected loss
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