Analytics Exercise $3-04($Static$)$

Sebastian River Farms $($SRF$)$ is a wholesale nursery with approximately $300$ acres on Florida$$s east coast near Vero Beach $($U$.$S$.$A$).$ The nursery grows over $75$ different varieties of trees and shrubs. The farm has approximately $121,000$ trees. About $31,000$ are mature trees that are available for sale. The other $90,000$ trees are $$growing$,$ which can take from one to three years, depending on the type.

The company sells to over $200$ landscaping and tree supply companies throughout Florida. Major customers are in Vero Beach, Tampa, Orlando, Fort Pierce, Jacksonville, and Sarasota. These customers order trees on an ongoing basis for their residential and commercial customer projects. During times when the weather is good, there is a steady stream of trucks which are loaded for delivery.

The sales team at SRF has observed that there is some seasonality to the demand for trees. Between January and May demand is usually strong. The hot summer months usually have slower demand. Hurricane season starts toward the end of August and runs through early October, which can result in major drops in demand when hurricanes hit the area. As soon as the threat of hurricane is over, demand picks up in the October, November, and December periods.

SRF has been experiencing steady growth over the past three years. The sales team expects this to continue over the next few years. The company is confident that they have enough trees that will mature in the next few years to accommodate this growth. For planning purposes, they would like to develop a forecast of sales for the next few years.

The sales team has collected the data shown in the following table. The table has sales in dollars for the past three full years, aggregated in three$-$month increments $($which we refer to as $$quarters$).$As can be seen, demand has steadily grown over the three years. Note that the data in the table are given in sales dollars. On

average, a tree cost about $$110,$ and this has remained constant over the past three years.

The management at SRF would like you to develop a sales forecast for the next two years in a format like that shown in the table.

To better understand how good your forecast was, consider actual demand data from the first three quarters of the current year.

Using these data and your forecast, calculate the mean absolute percent error $($MAPE$)$ for the three periods shown. Answer this

question by reporting the percent error for each quarter and the average percent error.

Note: Round your "Forecast", "Actual" to $2$ declmal places. Round your percentege answers to $2$ declmal places.