Any economic downturn takes a predictable path or direction. The spread of the recession began with the confounding of foreign accounts as a result of the massive trade deficit, increased debt repayments, and/or the flow of "hot money" to exports. The impact was felt immediately in the asset sector, and the decline in foreign exchange reserves weighed on the local currency and market trust

External shocks usually take six to nine months to reach the actual economy, and the global crisis leads businesses to close and employees to lose their employment. Banks are often in the vanguard of the recession at the start of the crisis in nations where the banking system is more intertwined with the global financial market and welcomes foreign investment, which magnifies the impact or consequences of shocks .International capital flows have had no impact on the financial system of Pakistan thus far. Due to the fact that global crisis conditions intensify non-financial issues, banks are frequently put under pressure near the end of the era. Another reason to keep it apart from hot money, which the National Bank encourages the post-stability cycle has been flipped. Protective policies by policymakers, in addition to the IMF programme, normally stabilise external accounts first, followed by stock markets. Equilibrium's effects were finally felt in the physical world. It will take at least one to two years, if not longer, to achieve equilibrium through private investment and re-employment, depending on the severity of the recession. In this context, it's both instructive and discouraging to recall that, following the last major crisis in Pakistan in 2008, economic growth took just 10 years to successfully surpass the preceding year's GDP growth rate. But, in the crisis where do we stand?External accounts have shown signs of stabilisation after being significantly hit between July 2018 and July 2019. It is, however, far too early to declare the turn. The recession has progressed from an external trading shock to a debt crisis, indicating that it could last longer. In these circumstances, the fund's overall structure has been effectively attacked, as the fund's size and technical costs put external accounts at danger, rather than forcibly targeting them in the early stages. Regrettably, the cost of quickly restoring investor confidence far outweighs this benefit.

The recession shock wave is expected to move to the physical field from external accounts. The productivity of major manufacturing industries for eight months in a row was negative between December of last year and July of this year. Cars, motorcycles, trucks, buses and durable goods all fell precipitously and oil sales collapsed (particularly high-speed diesel, which is the bellwether of all economic activity). Likewise, the growth or decrease in imports of bank goods and private sector demand for credit has been negative.

A new national survey conducted in August of this year by Ipsos Pakistan reinforced the bearish feeling gathered in the rumours, tge survey shows that;

In comparison to a year earlier, 9 out of 10 Pakistanis reported feeling hesitant while getting general household products and significant services (like automobiles, residences, and so on); a significant portion of the economic downturn is the unavoidable result of the crisis and subsequent stabilisation measures.

The government, on the other hand, will minimise the effect by developing a well-thought-out plan to achieve the transformation from stability to prosperity.