Any ideas or thoughts pls, thank you!

Your boss asks you to perform a financial analysis on Tree Lights R Us and recommend a trade that uses $10mm of capital. Please recommend a trade and explain your rationale for your recommendation. Use the capital structure on Exhibit 2 to determine what your trade recommendation will be. Based on your financial due diligence you have come up with the following assumptions: 90% chance of bankruptcy 10% chance of refinancing In a bankruptcy 2019 Sr. Notes will trade to .65 In a bankruptcy 2020 Sr. Notes will trade to .65 In a bankruptcy Sub Notes will trade to .40 In a refi 2019 Sr. Notes will trade to 1.00 In a refi 2020 Sr. Notes will trade to .95 In a refi Sub Notes will trade to .90 Industry EV multiples are between 5-5.5xEXHIBIT 2 Tree Lights R US in mm's LTM Period End 12/31/2017 Settlement date 4/15/2018 Cash 5 Peak EBITDA 350 LTM EBITDA 150 Debt Maturity AMT O/S Price Mrkt Value Notes Secured Bank Term Loan 12/31/2025 150.00 1.00 150.00 10% Sr. Notes 6/1/2019 400.00 0.87 360.00 Sr. notes pari-pasu 10.5% Sr. Notes 3/1/2020 450.00 0.82 369.00 Sr. notes pari-pasu 13% sub notes 2/1/2021 225.00 0.75 135.00 Total 1,225.00 1,014.00 Equity shares outstanding 250,000,000 2 500.00 Industry EV multiples are between 5-5.5x Industry total leverage 3.75- 4.25x