As it is not possible to always visually determine the best model, it is expected that you have tried all the possible models. Here is a list of models I expect you to run:

0. AR(1) - Random Walk Test. If you have a random walk, then only analyze #1, #2, #3.

1. Naive (Seasonal/ Non-seasonal)

2. Moving Average

3. SImple Exponential

4. Holts Method (Double Exponential)

5. Holts- Winters (Additive and Multiplicative)

6. Linear Trend+ Seasonality

7. Exponential Trend+ Seasonality

8. Polynomial (order 2)Trend + Seasonality (Also called Quadratic model)

9. Polynomial (order 3)Trend + Seasonality (if you want to run)

10. Logistic Regression (only if you are forecasting events)

11. Artificial Neural Network (if you have observations more than 1000)

Please compare their MAPE to find the best model. You cannot calculate MAPE for logistic regression. For that, please report the % error.

Month of Date Category Count of Category

Jan-03 ARSON 20

Feb-03 ARSON 17

Mar-03 ARSON 22

Apr-03 ARSON 15

May-03 ARSON 28

Jun-03 ARSON 32

Jul-03 ARSON 40

Aug-03 ARSON 17

Sep-03 ARSON 23

Oct-03 ARSON 28

Nov-03 ARSON 23

Dec-03 ARSON 21

Jan-04 ARSON 29

Feb-04 ARSON 19

Mar-04 ARSON 26

Apr-04 ARSON 20

May-04 ARSON 23

Jun-04 ARSON 23

Jul-04 ARSON 26

Aug-04 ARSON 26

Sep-04 ARSON 17

Oct-04 ARSON 27

Nov-04 ARSON 20

Dec-04 ARSON 18

Jan-05 ARSON 21

Feb-05 ARSON 17

Mar-05 ARSON 18

Apr-05 ARSON 24

May-05 ARSON 13

Jun-05 ARSON 23

Jul-05 ARSON 23

Aug-05 ARSON 20

Sep-05 ARSON 17

Oct-05 ARSON 18

Nov-05 ARSON 18

Dec-05 ARSON 17

Jan-06 ARSON 24

Feb-06 ARSON 13

Mar-06 ARSON 16

Apr-06 ARSON 19

May-06 ARSON 27

Jun-06 ARSON 14

Jul-06 ARSON 24

Aug-06 ARSON 24

Sep-06 ARSON 27

Oct-06 ARSON 27

Nov-06 ARSON 11

Dec-06 ARSON 14

Jan-07 ARSON 23

Feb-07 ARSON 12

Mar-07 ARSON 16

Apr-07 ARSON 19

May-07 ARSON 27

Jun-07 ARSON 20

Jul-07 ARSON 29

Aug-07 ARSON 16

Sep-07 ARSON 27

Oct-07 ARSON 18

Nov-07 ARSON 23

Dec-07 ARSON 11

Jan-08 ARSON 16

Feb-08 ARSON 12

Mar-08 ARSON 34

Apr-08 ARSON 20

May-08 ARSON 17

Jun-08 ARSON 20

Jul-08 ARSON 21

Aug-08 ARSON 24

Sep-08 ARSON 27

Oct-08 ARSON 18

Nov-08 ARSON 19

Dec-08 ARSON 17

Jan-09 ARSON 20

Feb-09 ARSON 17

Mar-09 ARSON 16

Apr-09 ARSON 18

May-09 ARSON 17

Jun-09 ARSON 15

Jul-09 ARSON 30

Aug-09 ARSON 18

Sep-09 ARSON 18

Oct-09 ARSON 14

Nov-09 ARSON 25

Dec-09 ARSON 13

Jan-10 ARSON 19

Feb-10 ARSON 9

Mar-10 ARSON 18

Apr-10 ARSON 15

May-10 ARSON 20

Jun-10 ARSON 22

Jul-10 ARSON 18

Aug-10 ARSON 21

Sep-10 ARSON 19

Oct-10 ARSON 20

Nov-10 ARSON 17

Dec-10 ARSON 6

Jan-11 ARSON 24

Feb-11 ARSON 16

Mar-11 ARSON 11

Apr-11 ARSON 21

May-11 ARSON 11

Jun-11 ARSON 13

Jul-11 ARSON 20

Aug-11 ARSON 17

Sep-11 ARSON 17

Oct-11 ARSON 14

Nov-11 ARSON 17

Dec-11 ARSON 12

Jan-12 ARSON 28

Feb-12 ARSON 16

Mar-12 ARSON 11

Apr-12 ARSON 17

May-12 ARSON 17

Jun-12 ARSON 21

Jul-12 ARSON 25

Aug-12 ARSON 17

Sep-12 ARSON 25

Oct-12 ARSON 18

Nov-12 ARSON 17

Dec-12 ARSON 19

Jan-13 ARSON 37

Feb-13 ARSON 23

Mar-13 ARSON 22

Apr-13 ARSON 10

May-13 ARSON 18

Jun-13 ARSON 19

Jul-13 ARSON 25

Aug-13 ARSON 17

Sep-13 ARSON 19

Oct-13 ARSON 21

Nov-13 ARSON 24

Dec-13 ARSON 10

Jan-14 ARSON 32

Feb-14 ARSON 21

Mar-14 ARSON 13

Apr-14 ARSON 18

May-14 ARSON 15

Jun-14 ARSON 25

Jul-14 ARSON 20

Aug-14 ARSON 19

Sep-14 ARSON 14

Oct-14 ARSON 24

Nov-14 ARSON 28

Dec-14 ARSON 22

Jan-15 ARSON 41

Feb-15 ARSON 31

Mar-15 ARSON 21

Apr-15 ARSON 30

May-15 ARSON 29

Jun-15 ARSON 31

Jul-15 ARSON 22

Aug-15 ARSON 16

Sep-15 ARSON 16

Oct-15 ARSON 28

Nov-15 ARSON 25

Dec-15 ARSON 19

Jan-16 ARSON 25

Feb-16 ARSON 25

Mar-16 ARSON 27

Apr-16 ARSON 28

May-16 ARSON 22

Jun-16ARSON 21

Jul-16 ARSON 25

Aug-16 ARSON 22

Sep-16 ARSON 14

Oct-16 ARSON 20

Nov-16 ARSON 32

Dec-16 ARSON 21

Jan-17 ARSON 20

Feb-17 ARSON 21

Mar-17 ARSON 33

Apr-17 ARSON 28

May-17 ARSON 26

Jun-17 ARSON 27

Jul-17 ARSON 41

Aug-17 ARSON 21

Sep-17 ARSON 20

Oct-17 ARSON 32

Nov-17 ARSON 20

Dec-17 ARSON 38

Jan-18 ARSON 26

Feb-18 ARSON 19

Mar-18 ARSON 21

Apr-18 ARSON 26

May-18 ARSON 5