As the junior fixed$-$income analyst, you are tasked with developing a presentation to a pension

fund client. The pension fund client has concerns regarding the current economic landscape

and the performance of US corporate bonds, specifically the default risk premium.

Based on your research, you have concluded that the default risk premium can be measured by

the yield$-$spread between comparable maturity corporate bonds and U$.$S$.$ Treasury bonds. The

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System $($FRS$)$ publishes various series of spreads

across ratings of corporate bonds. In addition, the FRS also publishes a time series of changes in

U$.$ S$.$ Gross Domestic Product. To conduct your analysis, you have prepared the following data

sets:

Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on $10-$Year

Treasury Constant Maturity $-$ contains the monthly spreads $($January $1980-$

January $2024)$ between Corporate Baa Yields and $10-$yr Constant Maturity

Treasury Bonds.

Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product $-$ the quarterly percentage change

$($Q$1$Y$1980-$ Q$1$Y$2024)$ in Real Gross Domestic Product.

Your assignment is to plot both series, on one graph, and indicate the periods of recession in

the U$.$S$.$ economy from $1980-2024.$ Also, you are to determine if the changes in credit spreads

precede or follow periods of economic recession.