As treasurer of Tucson Corp. (a U.S. exporter to New Zealand), you must decide how to hedge (if at all) future receivables of NZD 250,000 (NZD=New Zealand dollar) 90 days from now. Put options are available for a premium of USD .03 per unit and an exercise price of .49 USD/NZD. The forecasted (USD/NZD) spot rate in 90 days follows:

Future Spot Rate (USD/NZD) Probability

.44 30%

.40 50

.38 20

Given that you hedge your position with options, create a probability distribution for USD to be received in 90 days.