Assignment 3 Case Study Analysis BMAC Research Development Decision Note Please do make sure that you appropriately cite any reference material, using Harvard Referencing style and ensure that you draw from quality academic sources On this note, remember that general internet sources such as Wikipedia and Investopedia are not recognised academic sources Following on from what you have learnt about the key elements of decision problems and Structuring Modelling Decision Problems from your readings and lectures, this activity provides you with the opportunity to apply your knowledge to a case study on BMAC research and development (R D) decision problem Read the BMAC research development (R D) decision case study below address the following questions related to the case study (300 500 words, excluding diagrams) What were the fundamental objectives of BMAC in their decision problem Construct an influence diagram to represent BMACs decision problem Construct a decision tree to represent BMACs decision problem Reflect on the roles that the two diagrams play in helping to understand clarify and communicate the structure of BMACs decision problem Give at least one example from your work and from your reading of the academic literature (published journal articles) in which influence diagrams or decision tress may be have been applied to structure a decision problem Provide appropriate references in Harvard referencing format Case study BMAC Research Development decision BMAC, a research and development (R D) company, must decide whether to spend $2 million to continue with a particular drug development research project The success of the project (as measured by obtaining a patent) is not assured, and at this point the decision maker judges only a 65 chance of getting the patent If the patent is awarded, the company can either license the patent for an estimated $25 million or invest an additional $10 million to create a production and marketing system to sell the product directly If the company chooses the latter, it faces uncertainty of demand (categorized as high, medium or low demand) and associated profit from sales The probabilities of the three levels of demand and associated revenues are summarised on the Table below Probability Revenue ($M) Demand High 0 2 55 Demand Medium 0 5 33 Demand Low 0 3 15

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Assignment 3: Case Study Analysis - BMAC Research & Development Decision Note: Please do make sure that you appropriately cite any reference material, using Harvard

Assignment 3: Case Study Analysis - BMAC Research & Development Decision

Note: Please do make sure that you appropriately cite any reference material, using Harvard Referencing style and ensure that you draw from quality academic sources. On this note, remember that general internet sources such as Wikipedia and Investopedia are not recognised academic sources.

Following on from what you have learnt about the key elements of decision problems and Structuring/Modelling Decision Problems from your readings and lectures, this activity provides you with the opportunity to apply your knowledge to a case study on BMAC research and development (R & D) decision problem.

Read the BMAC research & development (R & D) decision case study below address the following questions related to the case study (300 - 500 words, excluding diagrams).

What were the fundamental objectives of BMAC in their decision problem

Construct an influence diagram to represent BMACs decision problem

Construct a decision tree to represent BMACs decision problem

Reflect on the roles that the two diagrams play in helping to understand/clarify and communicate the structure of BMACs decision problem?

Give at least one example from your work and from your reading of the academic literature (published journal articles) in which influence diagrams or decision tress may be/have been applied to structure a decision problem. Provide appropriate references in Harvard referencing format.

Case study: BMAC Research & Development decision

BMAC, a research and development (R & D) company, must decide whether to spend $2 million to continue with a particular drug development research project. The success of the project (as measured by obtaining a patent) is not assured, and at this point the decision-maker judges only a 65% chance of getting the patent. If the patent is awarded, the company can either license the patent for an estimated $25 million or invest an additional $10 million to create a production and marketing system to sell the product directly. If the company chooses the latter, it faces uncertainty of demand (categorized as high, medium or low demand) and associated profit from sales. The probabilities of the three levels of demand and associated revenues are summarised on the Table below.