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Assume: a company has a portfolio of five investment projects Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4 Project 5 Peer Group Market 2007 -4.00%
Assume: a company has a portfolio of five investment projects | ||||||||||
Project 1 | Project 2 | Project 3 | Project 4 | Project 5 | Peer Group | Market | ||||
2007 | -4.00% | -4.15% | -12% | -17.75% | -10.50% | -7.35% | -3% | |||
2008 | -7.23% | 1.22% | 11.35% | -18.25% | 5.50% | -9.27% | -1.20% | |||
2009 | 7.85% | 5.50% | 7.20% | -7.60% | -7.75% | 8.25% | 3.75% | |||
2010 | 8.37% | 8.05% | 3.50% | 12.55% | 11.22% | 11.37% | 4.50% | |||
2011 | 9.05% | 10.15% | 10.27% | 10.30% | 10.65% | 10.95% | 7.10% | |||
2012 | -11.30% | -3.30% | 7.33% | 9.64% | 5.35% | 10.50% | 6.17% | |||
2013 | 9.17% | 8.90% | 2.57% | 11.55% | 1.33% | 7.75% | 3.19% | |||
2014 | 10.55% | 9.33% | 2.90% | 10.90% | 17.21% | 8.30% | 3.30% | |||
2015 | 12.27% | 10.60% | 4.53% | 8.30% | 15.00% | 8.92% | 4.22% | |||
2016 | 13.52% | 9.50% | 6.20% | 9.25% | 12.00% | 6.70% | 5.70% | |||
2017 | -8.30% | -3.30% | 8.05% | 8.78% | 9.37% | -7.90% | 2.55% | |||
2018 | 12.65% | 8.60% | 7.30% | 8.87% | 3.37% | 10.35% | 2.47% | |||
2019 | 15.24% | 7.95% | 6.50% | 9.33% | 3.30% | 11.28% | 2.15% | |||
2020 | -8.30% | 5.10% | 6.35% | 7.27% | 8.15% | 6.05% | -3.35% | |||
2021 | 12.00% | 11.00% | 27% | 33% | 9.85% | 8.73% | 7.05% | |||
2022 | 16.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 24.7% | 11.7% | 15.3% | -0.10% | |||
2023 | 11.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 15.3% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 2.9% | |||
2023 years data are forecasts | ||||||||||
Portfolio weights Scenario | 18% | 15% | 22% | 27% | 18% | 100% | ||||
Step 1: Analyze each project returns, ranking projects in terms of: | ||||||||||
1. average historical returns for 2007-2021 | ||||||||||
2. riskiness of returns over 2007-2021 period | ||||||||||
3. average expected returns for 2007-2023 excluding years of the crises (2007-2008 and 2020-2021) | ||||||||||
4. riskiness of returns over 2007-2023 period excluding years of the crises. | ||||||||||
Step 2: Calculate betas for each project, portfolio of projects and the peer group for the following periods (use Market): | ||||||||||
1. 2007-2021 | ||||||||||
2. Ex-crises period 2007-2023 (excluding 2007-2008 and 2020-2021) | ||||||||||
Use SLOPE command method for calculating betas. | ||||||||||
3. Rank each project in terms of its betas and discuss their rankings. | ||||||||||
How do betas change across 1. and 2. above and why? | ||||||||||
Step 3: Plot in a scattergram chart risk-return relationships for all projects, portfolio of projects, peer group and the market: | ||||||||||
On X-axis, plot given period riskiness of returns | ||||||||||
On Y-axis, plot corresponding average returns for the same period. | ||||||||||
Using the same graph, plot these risk-return relationships by project for the following two sub-periods: | ||||||||||
Period 1: 2007-2021 | ||||||||||
Period 2: 2007-2023 excluding years of the crises | ||||||||||
Analyze risk-return performance of each investment project across all periods and across periods excluding major crises. | ||||||||||
Step 4: As an analyst reviewing 5 investment projects, what can you conclude about each project risk-adjusted performance? | ||||||||||
Which project(s) would you recommend the firm to undertake and why, assuming the firm can only pursue 2 projects of its choice? | ||||||||||
How did your firm portfolio of investments perform over 2007-2021? How sensitive it was to crises periods conditions? |
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