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Assume a student is contemplating whether or not he should write the test of his risk analysis course or defer it to after his vacations.

Assume a student is contemplating whether or not he should write the test of his risk analysis course or defer it to after his vacations. He is 50/50 on deferring or writing the test when his professor tells him that there is a 30% probability of getting an 'A' if he writes it now. Calculate:

a)Likelihood

b)Outcome

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