Assume that the economy can experience four possible states: high growth, normal growth, recession, or depression. For each of those states, you expect the following stock market returns for the coming year: State of the Economy Probability Return High Growth 0.2 40% Normal Growth 0.6 14% Recession 0.15 -1% Depression 0.05 -3% In dollar terms, what is the value at risk (over a one-year horizon at a 5 percent probability) associated with a $1,000 investment?

The value at risk: $