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Assume that there are only 3 possible outcomes for the spot price of a commodity which underlies a futures contract at the maturity of that
Assume that there are only 3 possible outcomes for the spot price of a commodity which underlies a futures contract at the maturity of that futures contract. As seen today, these prices (i.e. those at the maturity of the futures contract) are 90, 100 or 110 & each may occur with probability 1/3, 1/3 & 1/3.
Further, assume that futures market prices are set in accordance with the theory of normal contango.
Which of the following is a potential price that could clear the market?
105
| ||
100 | ||
90
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95
|
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