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Assume that you have two dice, one of which is fair, and the other is biased toward landing on six, so that 0.25 of the
Assume that you have two dice, one of which is fair, and the other is biased toward landing on six, so that 0.25 of the time it lands on six, and 0.15 of the time it lands on each of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. You choose a die at random, and roll it six times, getting the values 4, 3, 6, 6, 5, 5. What is the probability that the die you chose is the fair die? The outcomes of the rolls are mutually independent.
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