Assume that you manage a large portfolio with the current value of $1 million, and assume the monthly return follow a normal distribution with mean of 1% and standard deviation of 4%. You generate monthly return for 12-month period, and then calculate the portfolio value at the end of the 12th month. You then run this simulation for 5000 times, and then rank the end portfolio value from the lowest to the highest (1st to 5000th). What is your portfolio VaR (value at risk) estimate, given a 95% confidence level? Question 15 options: $1 million minus the 50th lowest portfolio value The 250th lowest portfolio value The 50th lowest portfolio value $1 million minus the 250th lowest portfolio value