Assume the high yield ETF with ticker JNK had an option adjusted duration of 3.85 years and a yield-to-maturity of 4.35% on December 31, 2022. Use these two pieces of information and the two charts below to estimate the total return of JNK from December 31, 2021 to October 31, 2022. You can use the five year Treasury yield-to-maturity to measure changes in interest rates. You can use the ICE BofA US High Yield Index OAS to measure changes in credit spreads.

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Clue: The ETF had an actual total return of -13.64% from December 31, 2021 to October 31, 2022. If you are on the correct track with the estimate, you will likely end up with an estimate between -14.50% and -12.75%.

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=D - ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve =D - ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve