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Assume today's date is Dec 31, 2021. To answer the following questions, use Date and Auber monthly trips (mill) provided in sheet 'Auber monthly trips'
Assume today's date is Dec 31, 2021. To answer the following questions, use Date and Auber monthly trips (mill) provided in sheet 'Auber monthly trips' Obtain the seasonal indexes for Jan to Dec based on the past FOUR years (2018-2021) in yellow cells below. Obtain the Seasonally Adjusted Actual for Jan 21 to Dec 21 in orange cells below. Using only 2021 data and Exponential Smoothing with Trend (a=0.3, B=0.5), forecast Trips (mill) for Jan '22 in light blue cell below. Obtain MSE for 2021 in gray cell below. Using Excel's Solver, obtain the optimal parameters (a and ) that minimize MSE for 2021. GENERATE SOLVER'S ANSWER REPORT Seasonal Seasonally Actual Actual Actual Actual Index Adj Actual Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 2022 Jan 374.5 528.3 672.8 390.8 1.0129425 385.80669 Using the seasonal indexes obtained and your forecast for Year 2022, forecast monthly trips (mill) for Year 2022 (enter values in appropriate orange cells above)
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