Assuming Mr . Jaeger chooses to leave the grapes on the vine , what is the probability that the grapes will end up with botrytis , and how much money will he make if that occurs ? If Mr . Jaeger chooses to leave the grapes on the vine the probability that the grapes will end up with botrytis is (.5 rain x .4 botrytis ) = .2. If this occurs, Mr. Jaeger will make a profit of $8.00 x (1-.3 reduction in juice ) x 12000 bottles = $67200