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At a party, Miss V is sexually assaulted by a man. She goes directly to the police. She is wearing a black wool sweater. The
At a party, Miss V is sexually assaulted by a man. She goes directly to the police. She is wearing a black wool sweater. The forensic scientist recovers 94 white cotton fibres from the black wool sweater. Shortly afterwards, Mr. X comes to the attention of the police. He is wearing a white cotton T-shirt. When interviewed, he gives no comment. The forensic scientist formulates the following pair of activity level propositions: Hp: Mr. X had intense physical contact with Miss V. Ha: Mr. X did not have intense physical contact with Miss V. Some other, unknown man had intense physical contact with Miss V. Mr. X's T-shirt is confiscated. The fibres recovered from Miss V's sweater are indistinguishable from the fibres of Mr. X's T-shirt. The match probability for this white cotton is 0.08. Assuming that: . the probability of the transfer, persistence and recovery of 94 cotton fibres as a result of intense physical contact is 0.4 (i.e. tp,94 = td,94 = 0.4), . the probability of the transfer, persistence and recovery of 0 cotton fibres as a result of intense physical contact is 0.00001 (i.e., tpo = ta,o = 0.00001), . the probability of finding 1 group of 94 fibres by chance on a wool sweater is 0.001, . the probability of finding 0 groups of fibres by chance on a wool sweater is 0.01 and . a possibility of the transfer also needs to be considered for the Ha. What is the likelihood ratio for the observed results with regard to the activity level propositions given above? O 1 O 12 O 18 O 20 O 40
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