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At the beginning of 2021, you decide to sell bond position and invest in S&P 500. Past 10 year of S&P 500 dividend yield, total

  1. At the beginning of 2021, you decide to sell bond position and invest in S&P 500. Past 10 year of S&P 500 dividend yield, total return and risk free rate are shown as follows.

    Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
    Dividend yield 2.13% 2.20% 1.94% 1.92% 2.11% 2.03% 1.84% 2.09% 1.83% 1.58%
    Total Return 2.11% 16% 32.39% 13.69% 1.38% 11.96% 21.83% -4.38% 31.49% 18.40%
    Risk free rate (10 year) 2.78% 1.80% 2.35% 2.54% 2.14% 1.84% 2.33% 2.91% 2.14% 0.89%

    Q1: What is the average risk premium in percentage term from 2011 to 2020? (hint: copy paste the whole table to excel and use excel function)

  2. Q2: What is the standard deviation of risk premium in percentage term?

  3. Q3: Suppose you expect average 10-year treasury note rate to be 2.17% (average of past 10 year risk-free) . Also, you expect in 2021, S&P 500 index risk premium will be 0.2 standard deviation above the historical mean. What is the expected return in percentage term on market (S&P 500 index) in 2021?

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