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Averias, S.A. Jose and Adriana have a washing machinethat suddenly stopped working last weekend when it was halfway through a wash cycle. Jose called the

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Averias, S.A. Jose and Adriana have a washing machinethat suddenly stopped working last weekend when it was halfway through a wash cycle. Jose called the technical service. The first question they asked him was if it hadstoppedsuddenlyor if it hadfirst shakena few times and makea loud noise. When Joseanswered that it had happenedsuddenly the technicianmadea telephonediagnosis and told me him that it had to be a rupturedbelt (which was, in fact, right). How was he able to know this? The professional knew that in this washing machine brand the problem could be due to the belt, the motor, or the drum in these approximate proportions: 40%, 50%, and 10%, respectively. If the belt was working poorly, the machine stopped suddenly 75% of the time, while this only happened 10% and 20% of the time, respectively, when the damage was in the motor or the drum. The technician used this information to make the telephonediagnosis- even though he was not very sureof it - becausehe knew that it gave customers a positive impression when he was right, even though he ran the risk of occasionally making a false diagnosis. However, he would like to find out the likelihood that the problem was in the belt (B) once he learned that the washing machine stopped suddenly. Find this likelihood

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