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Axon is an early-stage biotech research company with a single product, AX484, in its pipeline. Recently, Axon successfully received IND status for AX484, and has
Axon is an early-stage biotech research company with a single product, AX484, in its pipeline. Recently, Axon successfully received IND status for AX484, and has been preparing to test the new compound in phase 1 clinical trials. Axon has neither the capital nor the clinical trial expertise to navigate AX484 through the regulatory approval process, and is looking for a partner to help fund the costs of the trial and serve in an advisory role. Earlier this year, the general partners of BioLab Ventures (BLV) met with the management team of Axon to negotiate the terms of a series A round of financing (Axon had initially been financed by the founders, and was currently renting space in a shared laboratory facility). A number of important questions needed to be addressed including the current "pre-money" valuation of Axon, the amount of equity that would be acquired by BLV, and the amount BLV would pay to acquire that equity. Axon expects the approval process will take 7 years to complete. Their projections are as follows: Phase 1 will take 2 years, cost $10 million, and have a 60% probability of success. Phase 2 will take 2 years, cost $60 million, and have a 50% probability of success. Phase 3 and regulatory review will take 3 years, cost $150 million, and have a 70% probability of success. They assume a discount rate of 30%, 20%, and 15% per year for each of these phases, respectively. Under these assumptions, what is Axon's INPV? (Note: Your answer should be expressed in units of millions of dollars.) $ 1 million Axon is an early-stage biotech research company with a single product, AX484, in its pipeline. Recently, Axon successfully received IND status for AX484, and has been preparing to test the new compound in phase 1 clinical trials. Axon has neither the capital nor the clinical trial expertise to navigate AX484 through the regulatory approval process, and is looking for a partner to help fund the costs of the trial and serve in an advisory role. Earlier this year, the general partners of BioLab Ventures (BLV) met with the management team of Axon to negotiate the terms of a series A round of financing (Axon had initially been financed by the founders, and was currently renting space in a shared laboratory facility). A number of important questions needed to be addressed including the current "pre-money" valuation of Axon, the amount of equity that would be acquired by BLV, and the amount BLV would pay to acquire that equity. Axon expects the approval process will take 7 years to complete. Their projections are as follows: Phase 1 will take 2 years, cost $10 million, and have a 60% probability of success. Phase 2 will take 2 years, cost $60 million, and have a 50% probability of success. Phase 3 and regulatory review will take 3 years, cost $150 million, and have a 70% probability of success. They assume a discount rate of 30%, 20%, and 15% per year for each of these phases, respectively. Under these assumptions, what is Axon's INPV? (Note: Your answer should be expressed in units of millions of dollars.) $ 1 million
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