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(b) Company Alpha is considering whether or not to undertake project Beta, which will be loss-making. If (and only if) the company takes on project
(b) Company Alpha is considering whether or not to undertake project Beta, which will be loss-making. If (and only if) the company takes on project Beta, however, it will become entitled, but not obliged, to undertake a second project, project Gamma. Based on market analysis, it appears that there are only two possible points at which to commence project Gamma: either immediately, or in two years and nine months' time. If Gamma were commenced immediately, the present value of operating the project, based on its after-tax operating cash flows, would be $65m. Of that value, 18% is attributable to net cash flows forecast to occur over the next two years and nine months. The operating cash flows of the project are uncertain, and the value of the project is estimated to have a volatility of 24% p.a. (o = 0.24). The up-front cost of investing in project Gamma is $54m, whenever it is commenced. The annually-compounded risk-free rate of interest is 4%, and is not expected to change. Identify and value any real option(s) available to Alpha; and advise the company. [14 marks]
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