B New constructions Month 1 (thousands) 2 Jan 2015 29 3 Feb-2015 32 4 Mar-2015 41 5 Apr-2015 44 6 May 2015 49 7 Jun-2015 47 8 Jul-2015 46 9 Aug-2015 47 10 Sep-2015 43 11 Oct-2015 45 12 Nov-2015 34 13 Dec-2015 31 14 Jan-2016 15 Feb-2016 16 Mar-2016 46 17 Apr-2016 46 18 May 2016 43 19 Jun-2016 41 20 Jul-2016 44 21 Aug-2016 47 22 Sep-2016 41 23 Oct-2016 40 24 Nov-2016 32 25 Dec-2016 32 26 Jan-2017 34 27 Feb-2017 40 28 Mar-2017 43 29 Apr-2017 42 30 May-2017 43 50- 31 Jun-2017 32 Jul-2017 33 Aug-2017 34 Sep-2017 35 Oct-2017 36 Nov-2017 37 Dec-2017 38 Jan-2018 39 Feb-2018 40 Mar-2018 41 Apr-2018 42 May-2018 43 Jun-2018 44 Jul-2018 45 Aug-2018 46 Sep-2018 47 Oct-2018 48 Nov-2018 49 Dec-2018 50 Jan-2019 51 Feb-2019 52 Mar-2019 53 Apr-2019 54 May-2019 55 Jun-2019 56 Jul-2019 57 Aug-2019 58 Sep-2019 59 Oct-2019 60 Nov-2019 61 Dec-2019 44 39 40 33 32 31 28 34 29 36 42 43 44 44 48 45 44 40 37 45 49 62 62 58 59 64 62 50 52 50 44 62 Jan-2020 63 Feb-2020 64 Mar-2020 65 Apr-2020 66 May-2020 67 Jun-2020 68 Jul-2020 69 Aug-2020 70 Sep-2020 71 Oct-2020 72 Nov-2020 73 Dec-2020 51 56 60 65 64 63 63 72 61 65 51 47 b) Use the "Tahoe Salt" method with linear trend to forecast new constructions for the 12 months of 2021. c) Add your model values and forecast to the data chart. d) Compute the MAD of your model. e) Compute and plot the tracking signal in a new chart. f) Discuss the quality of this model. What is the flagrant flaw? g) Suggest an approach that would yield better results in terms of forecast values, MAD, and tracking signal. An appropriate narrative argument is sufficient (i.e., one or two sentences). You do not need to do calculations for this part. B New constructions Month 1 (thousands) 2 Jan 2015 29 3 Feb-2015 32 4 Mar-2015 41 5 Apr-2015 44 6 May 2015 49 7 Jun-2015 47 8 Jul-2015 46 9 Aug-2015 47 10 Sep-2015 43 11 Oct-2015 45 12 Nov-2015 34 13 Dec-2015 31 14 Jan-2016 15 Feb-2016 16 Mar-2016 46 17 Apr-2016 46 18 May 2016 43 19 Jun-2016 41 20 Jul-2016 44 21 Aug-2016 47 22 Sep-2016 41 23 Oct-2016 40 24 Nov-2016 32 25 Dec-2016 32 26 Jan-2017 34 27 Feb-2017 40 28 Mar-2017 43 29 Apr-2017 42 30 May-2017 43 50- 31 Jun-2017 32 Jul-2017 33 Aug-2017 34 Sep-2017 35 Oct-2017 36 Nov-2017 37 Dec-2017 38 Jan-2018 39 Feb-2018 40 Mar-2018 41 Apr-2018 42 May-2018 43 Jun-2018 44 Jul-2018 45 Aug-2018 46 Sep-2018 47 Oct-2018 48 Nov-2018 49 Dec-2018 50 Jan-2019 51 Feb-2019 52 Mar-2019 53 Apr-2019 54 May-2019 55 Jun-2019 56 Jul-2019 57 Aug-2019 58 Sep-2019 59 Oct-2019 60 Nov-2019 61 Dec-2019 44 39 40 33 32 31 28 34 29 36 42 43 44 44 48 45 44 40 37 45 49 62 62 58 59 64 62 50 52 50 44 62 Jan-2020 63 Feb-2020 64 Mar-2020 65 Apr-2020 66 May-2020 67 Jun-2020 68 Jul-2020 69 Aug-2020 70 Sep-2020 71 Oct-2020 72 Nov-2020 73 Dec-2020 51 56 60 65 64 63 63 72 61 65 51 47 b) Use the "Tahoe Salt" method with linear trend to forecast new constructions for the 12 months of 2021. c) Add your model values and forecast to the data chart. d) Compute the MAD of your model. e) Compute and plot the tracking signal in a new chart. f) Discuss the quality of this model. What is the flagrant flaw? g) Suggest an approach that would yield better results in terms of forecast values, MAD, and tracking signal. An appropriate narrative argument is sufficient (i.e., one or two sentences). You do not need to do calculations for this part
