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Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of pastries. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a
Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of pastries. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a major or a minor renovation of its current plant. Bill Wicker, head of operations, has developed the following conditional values table: El Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Major renovation $100,000 $90,000 Minor renovation $40,000 $20,000 Do nothing $0 $0 Assume that the probability of a favorable market is equal to the probability of an unfavorable market. a) Choose the appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities. Favorable 0.5 Favorable ' 100,000 100,000 nfavorable . _90 000 Unfavorable _90 000 Favorable . 40,000 Favorable 40,000 Unfavorable - 20,000 Unfavorable (0-5) -20,000 Do nothin 0 Favorable 0-5 100,000 Favorable 100,000 Unfavorable 90,000 Unfavorable 30,000 Favorable 40,000 Favorable 40,000 Unfavorable 20,000 Unfavorable -20,000 0 0 b) Find the best alternative using expected monetary value (EMV). The best alternative is major renovation , with an EMV = $ (enter your response as a whole number)
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