Based on your simulation analysis, identify the work package(s), among the five WPs, that should be considered critical (more important than others) for cost control purposes?Explain why. Be specific and, if possible, support your answerquantitativelyusing the simulation or PERT results. ?

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B C D E F G H 11 12 WP. 1 35 40 50 40.83 6.25 Use the 13 WP.2 80 90 110 91 67 25.00 14 WP.3 38 40 45 40.50 1.36 15 WP.4 50 60 80 61.67 25.00 16 WD - 17 18 19 Simulation 20 WP. 1 WP.2 WP.3 WP.4 WP.5 Total Cos 21 Norm Norm Norm Norm Norm 22 Iteration 23 43.58 95.79 41.14 55.64 20.60 24 42.52 90.76 40.79 60.91 20.45 25 A W N 36.40 88.21 40.27 59.62 24.61 26 39.01 85.20 39.44 74.44 23.90 27 5 42.73 89.65 40.99 66.10 20.83 ann 24 5021 4999 39.48 86.97 39.24 59.57 20.86 5022 5000 246.67 5023 moan 10 80 01 59 40 47 61 63 21 67 256 16 5024 ct dov = 251 5 03 1 17 501 1 68 7 70 5025 madian : 10 83 01 57 61 63 21 68 256 06 5026 min = 316 73 0 36 3 M 2 11 0 225 6 5027 may 40 1 100 7 81 7 27 1 2870 5028 5029 Graphs 5030 5031 Project Cost Risk Profile Project Cost Freque 5032 100% 600 5033 5034 500 5035 5036 400 5037 Frequency Probability 5038 50% 300 5039 5040 200 5041 5042 100 5043 5044 0% 0 5045 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 230 240 250 260 5046 Cost Cost 5047 5048 Risk-driven decision making 5049 . The most likely total cost is $ 258 5050 . The probability of completing the project with $ 250,000 is 22.0% #N/A 5051 . The project cost at 90% confidence is 5052 OO #N/A 5053 The probability distribution functions. 5054 20 Simulation 5055 Binc Frequency CDE 5056 230 0 0.00 5057 232.0 0.00 5058 234.0 0.00 5059 236 0 0 00 WP Cost WP1-Norr +11 D 12 50 40.83 6.25 Use the PERT formulas in Mo 13 110 91.67 25.00 14 45 40.50 1.36 15 80 61.67 25.00 16 20 21 07 70 17 245 18 19 20 2 WP.3 WP.4 WP.5 Total Cost 21 m Norm Norm Norm 22 23 79 41.14 55.64 20.60 24 76 40.79 60.91 20.45 25 21 40.27 59.62 24.61 210 12 26 20 39.44 74.44 23.90 27 40.99 66.10 20.83 5021 39.24 59.57 20.86 5022 246.67 5023 40 17 61 63 21 67 256 16 5024 1 17 5 04 1 68 7 70 5025 57 61 63 21 68 256 06 5026 36 3 1 2 11 0 225 6 5027 81 7 27 1 287 0 5028 5029 5030 5031 Profile Project Cost Frequency 5032 600 5033 5034 500 5035 5036 400 5037 Frequency 5038 300 5039 5040 200 5041 5042 100 5043 5044 5045 270 280 290 230 240 250 260 270 280 29 5046 Cost 5047 5048 5049 258 5050 ect with $ 250,000 is 22.0% #N/A 5051 00 99 #N/A 5052 5053 ictions. O 5054Prob 50% + Fred 300 200 100 0% 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 230 240 250 Cost Cost 4 Risk-driven decision making The most likely total cost is $ 258 . The probability of completing the project with $ 250,000 is 22.0% . The project cost at 90% confidence is 266 00 5 The probability distribution functions. 20 Simulation Bing Frequency CDE 230 0 0.00 232.0 0.00 234.0 0.00 236.0 8 0.00 238.0 32 0.01 240.0 40 0.02 242.0 62 0.03 244.0 135 0.06 246.0 185 0.09 248.0 257 0.15 250.0 341 0.21 252.0 408 0.30 254.0 494 0.39 256.0 515 0.50 258.0 516 0.60 260.0 424 0.69 262.0 403 0.77 264 0 366 0.84 266.0 295 0.90 268.0 199 0.94 270.0 121 0.96 272.0 82 0.98 274.0 42 0.99 2760 31 0.99 278.0 15 1.00 280.0 6 1.00 282.0 1.00 284.0 1.00 286.0 p- own 1.00 288.0 #N/A 200 0 #N/A Sum 5000Sum: 204016.949 Average: 40.803 A B E H By "BC" Kim (buk70@psu.edu) Step 1. Input the mean and variance of X. . The mean = 40.83