BAYES THEOREM 1. Every morning the coffee is prepared by the first employee who arrives. Karen comes first 20% of the time, Juan, and Julio 40% respectively. The probability of coffee being bitter if prepared by Karen is 10%, for Juan and Julio is 20% and 30% respectively. If you arrive in the morning and find the bitter coffee what is the probability that it did Karen? What is the probability that the coffee is bitter? What is the probability that the coffee is not bitter? [1] Event [2] Prob. [3] Prob. [4] [5] Prob. Prob. previous Conditional Joint Posterior TO P(A) P(B/A) P(ANB) P(A/B) A1 1 P(B) =