Question
Bloopers analysts have come up with the following revised estimates for its magnoosium mine: Range Pessimistic Optimistic Initial investment + 50 % 25 % Revenues
Bloopers analysts have come up with the following revised estimates for its magnoosium mine:
Range | ||||||||||||
Pessimistic | Optimistic | |||||||||||
Initial investment | + | 50 | % | 25 | % | |||||||
Revenues | 25 | % | + | 20 | % | |||||||
Variable costs | + | 15 | % | 25 | % | |||||||
Fixed cost | + | 25 | % | 45 | % | |||||||
Working capital | + | 25 | % | 40 | % | |||||||
Conduct a sensitivity analysis for each variable and range and compute the NPV for each. Use Spreadsheet 10.1 and accompanying data as a starting point for the analysis. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Negative amounts should be indicated by a minus sign. Enter your answers in thousands rounded to the nearest whole dollar.)
PROJECT NPV
Pessimistic Expected Optimistic
Initial Investment
Revenues
Variable Costs
Fixed Costs
Working Capital
Spreadsheet 10.1
A. Inputs | ||||||||||||
Initial investment ($ thousands) | 10,000 | |||||||||||
Salvage value ($ thousands) | 2,000 | |||||||||||
Initial revenues ($ thousands) | 15,000 | |||||||||||
Variable costs (% of revenues) | 40.0% | |||||||||||
Initial fixed costs ($ thousands) | 4,000 | |||||||||||
Initial total expenses ($ thousands) | 10,000 | |||||||||||
Inflation rate (%) | 5.0% | |||||||||||
Discount rate (%) | 12.0% | |||||||||||
Receivables (% of sales) | 16.7% | |||||||||||
Inventory (% of next year's costs) | 15.0% | |||||||||||
Tax rate (%) | 35.0% | |||||||||||
Year: | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |||||
B. Fixed assets | ||||||||||||
Investments in fixed assets | 10,000 | |||||||||||
Sales of fixed assets | 1,300 | |||||||||||
Cash flow from fixed assets | -10,000 | 1,300 | ||||||||||
C. Operating cash flow | ||||||||||||
Revenues | 15,000 | 15,750 | 16,538 | 17,364 | 18,233 | |||||||
Variable expenses | 6,000 | 6,300 | 6,615 | 6,946 | 7,293 | |||||||
Fixed expenses | 4,000 | 4,200 | 4,410 | 4,631 | 4,862 | |||||||
Depreciation | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | |||||||
Pretax profit | 3,000 | 3,250 | 3,513 | 3,788 | 4,078 | |||||||
Tax | 1,050 | 1,138 | 1,229 | 1,326 | 1,427 | |||||||
Profit after tax | 1,950 | 2,113 | 2,283 | 2,462 | 2,650 | |||||||
Operating cash flow | 3,950 | 4,113 | 4,283 | 4,462 | 4,650 | |||||||
D. Working capital | ||||||||||||
Working capital | 1,500 | 4,075 | 4,279 | 4,493 | 4,717 | 3,039 | 0 | |||||
Change in working capital | 1,500 | 2,575 | 204 | 214 | 225 | -1,679 | -3,039 | |||||
Cash flow from investment in working capital | -1,500 | -2,575 | -204 | -214 | -225 | 1,679 | 3,039 | |||||
0.408 | 0.408 | 0.408 | 0.408 | 0.250 | ||||||||
E. Project valuation | ||||||||||||
Total project cash flow | -11,500 | 1,375 | 3,909 | 4,069 | 4,238 | 6,329 | 4,339 |
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