BMT Company produces different types of rivet slugs for aircraft manufacturing companies. Highest demand of rivet slugs for the body of regular aircraft is known as "skin slug." Demands for skin slugs (in 104 units) over last 6 months (2021) are given as follow: Month April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 August 2021 650 September 2021 750 Demand 450 400 550 600 a) Qualified for short time forecasting period, the industrial engineer of BMT Co. decided to use simple exponential smoothing methods for forecasting. Determine the optimal a value such that the range is between 0.1 and 0.9 with single decimal place (1/10th) of variation. b) With the optimal a value you determined in part a, if adjusted exponential smoothing method is preferred, determine the optimal B value such that the range is between 0.1 and 0.9 with single decimal place (1/10th) of variation. c) From October 1, 2021 to the COB 10/13/2021, the BMT Co. sold 5,700,000 skin slugs. Based on your answers in parts: a and b, how many more skin slugs BMT Co. expects to sell for the rest of October 2021? d) With 95% confidence, what would be the range of expected number of skin slug sales for the month of October 2021? Note: This manufacturing company uses mean absolute deviation (MAD) as a tool for justifying and utilizing a specific technique and a set of parameters. BMT Company produces different types of rivet slugs for aircraft manufacturing companies. Highest demand of rivet slugs for the body of regular aircraft is known as "skin slug." Demands for skin slugs (in 104 units) over last 6 months (2021) are given as follow: Month April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 August 2021 650 September 2021 750 Demand 450 400 550 600 a) Qualified for short time forecasting period, the industrial engineer of BMT Co. decided to use simple exponential smoothing methods for forecasting. Determine the optimal a value such that the range is between 0.1 and 0.9 with single decimal place (1/10th) of variation. b) With the optimal a value you determined in part a, if adjusted exponential smoothing method is preferred, determine the optimal B value such that the range is between 0.1 and 0.9 with single decimal place (1/10th) of variation. c) From October 1, 2021 to the COB 10/13/2021, the BMT Co. sold 5,700,000 skin slugs. Based on your answers in parts: a and b, how many more skin slugs BMT Co. expects to sell for the rest of October 2021? d) With 95% confidence, what would be the range of expected number of skin slug sales for the month of October 2021? Note: This manufacturing company uses mean absolute deviation (MAD) as a tool for justifying and utilizing a specific technique and a set of parameters
