business abroad to capture more of the market. Milos, the Vice-President of Kitchen Appliances at Evtel, wants to predict future sales in order to plan business processes. Therefore, he asks Berkay, an experienced forecasting expert, to analyze Germany's smart home technologies data for the past 9 years with various forecasting methods. Help him with the analysis by answering the questions below. Berkay needs insight into the sales trends of the smart home technologies market in Germany. Answer the following questions by using Tables Part 1 A and B. Answers 1 2 3 4 5 Part 2 How many smart home devices were sold during the first half of 2018? What is the estimated market size? How many more products should have been sold in the year 2014 in order to have the same total sales as in the year 2016? Report the percentage increase in half sales between the second half of 2018 and the first half of 2020. What is the market penetration in the half year when they reached a total of 7902996 sales? Berkay needs you to fit 2 time series, 2nd Degree Polynomial, and Exponential trendlines to the past half-year sales of the smart home technologies market. Answer the following questions. Last 6 months of 2022 using 2nd According to your trendlines how many smart home products does EvTel estimate to sell in the following Degree Polynomial Trendline periods according to each forecasting method? First 2 quarters of 2025 using Exponential Trendline 1 N 3 What is the difference between the actual sales and the estimated sales according to the 2nd Degree Polynomial Trendline for the last 2 quarters of 2018? (Report a positive number.) Using half year sales, decide which trendline has a smaller error. And then report the estimated cumulative sales for the first half of 2024 for that trendline Due to the expected economic crisis in the years 2022 and 2023, EvTel expects a decrease in sales. Using the exponential trendline, how much sales Evel can lose to have a market penetration of 43% at the end of 2023? (This question is independent.) Berkay decided to apply Gompertz Model for better results to the given data. Help him analyze the market and create the sales model. In this 4 Part 3 1 Berkay decided to apply Gompertz Model for better results to the given data. Help him analyze the market and create the sales model. In this part, use the Gompertz parameters a = 1, b =0.1, k=5. Starting from the year 2015, report the total sales when the half sales started to decrease. What is the difference in market penetration estimation between the Exponential trendline and the Gompertz Model for the second half of 2023? (Report a positive value.) 2 3 If the average price of one smart home product is 1500, report the first year when the expected annual revenue exceeds 1,547,000,000. The company aims to reach a total of 20,100,000 sales at the end of 2023 by only changing the adoption rate. Report the new adoption rate. (This question is independent.) Using Solver, find the band k values that minimize the sum of squared errors in market penetration, between Gompertz and the actual data. Use the new band k values you found with the Solver in this part. (Use Market Penetration to calculate the SSE.) Part 4 b 1 Report the parameters' new values. k 2 3 What is the estimated yearly sales of 2022? What is the difference in sales between the 2nd Degree Polynomial trendline and the Gompertz Model for the year 2024? (Report a positive value.) According to the Gompertz Model, how many additional products need to be sold to penetrate 80% of the market by the first half of 2022? 4 5 With the increase in the euro/lira rate, the smart home appliances sector was negatively affected. Therefore, potential percentage of buyers reduced to 25%. In order to generate the same revenue in 2023, what should be the new price? (Remark: Old price is same as Part3.3.) Part 5 Berkay asks you questions about the Gompertz Curve variables. 1 What does the variable "a" represent in the Gompertz formula? 1 Click Here 2 Which one of the following changes in parameters indicates a quicker introduction phase? Click Here 1 TAL 24 TABLE C: Gompertz Parameters b br k TABLE B: Market Details Population 83,000,000 percentage of buyers 30% Market Size Gompertz Formula: keb S(O)=ae t= 0.1 5.00 TABLE A: Past Sales Years Years Past Sales 2014 536,076 539,009 561,273 2015 552,135 2016 2017 2018 2019 554,789 562,332 551,927 559,048 586.703 585,205 589,170 596,376 580,370 588,799 590,086 2020 2021 business abroad to capture more of the market. Milos, the Vice-President of Kitchen Appliances at Evtel, wants to predict future sales in order to plan business processes. Therefore, he asks Berkay, an experienced forecasting expert, to analyze Germany's smart home technologies data for the past 9 years with various forecasting methods. Help him with the analysis by answering the questions below. Berkay needs insight into the sales trends of the smart home technologies market in Germany. Answer the following questions by using Tables Part 1 A and B. Answers 1 2 3 4 5 Part 2 How many smart home devices were sold during the first half of 2018? What is the estimated market size? How many more products should have been sold in the year 2014 in order to have the same total sales as in the year 2016? Report the percentage increase in half sales between the second half of 2018 and the first half of 2020. What is the market penetration in the half year when they reached a total of 7902996 sales? Berkay needs you to fit 2 time series, 2nd Degree Polynomial, and Exponential trendlines to the past half-year sales of the smart home technologies market. Answer the following questions. Last 6 months of 2022 using 2nd According to your trendlines how many smart home products does EvTel estimate to sell in the following Degree Polynomial Trendline periods according to each forecasting method? First 2 quarters of 2025 using Exponential Trendline 1 N 3 What is the difference between the actual sales and the estimated sales according to the 2nd Degree Polynomial Trendline for the last 2 quarters of 2018? (Report a positive number.) Using half year sales, decide which trendline has a smaller error. And then report the estimated cumulative sales for the first half of 2024 for that trendline Due to the expected economic crisis in the years 2022 and 2023, EvTel expects a decrease in sales. Using the exponential trendline, how much sales Evel can lose to have a market penetration of 43% at the end of 2023? (This question is independent.) Berkay decided to apply Gompertz Model for better results to the given data. Help him analyze the market and create the sales model. In this 4 Part 3 1 Berkay decided to apply Gompertz Model for better results to the given data. Help him analyze the market and create the sales model. In this part, use the Gompertz parameters a = 1, b =0.1, k=5. Starting from the year 2015, report the total sales when the half sales started to decrease. What is the difference in market penetration estimation between the Exponential trendline and the Gompertz Model for the second half of 2023? (Report a positive value.) 2 3 If the average price of one smart home product is 1500, report the first year when the expected annual revenue exceeds 1,547,000,000. The company aims to reach a total of 20,100,000 sales at the end of 2023 by only changing the adoption rate. Report the new adoption rate. (This question is independent.) Using Solver, find the band k values that minimize the sum of squared errors in market penetration, between Gompertz and the actual data. Use the new band k values you found with the Solver in this part. (Use Market Penetration to calculate the SSE.) Part 4 b 1 Report the parameters' new values. k 2 3 What is the estimated yearly sales of 2022? What is the difference in sales between the 2nd Degree Polynomial trendline and the Gompertz Model for the year 2024? (Report a positive value.) According to the Gompertz Model, how many additional products need to be sold to penetrate 80% of the market by the first half of 2022? 4 5 With the increase in the euro/lira rate, the smart home appliances sector was negatively affected. Therefore, potential percentage of buyers reduced to 25%. In order to generate the same revenue in 2023, what should be the new price? (Remark: Old price is same as Part3.3.) Part 5 Berkay asks you questions about the Gompertz Curve variables. 1 What does the variable "a" represent in the Gompertz formula? 1 Click Here 2 Which one of the following changes in parameters indicates a quicker introduction phase? Click Here 1 TAL 24 TABLE C: Gompertz Parameters b br k TABLE B: Market Details Population 83,000,000 percentage of buyers 30% Market Size Gompertz Formula: keb S(O)=ae t= 0.1 5.00 TABLE A: Past Sales Years Years Past Sales 2014 536,076 539,009 561,273 2015 552,135 2016 2017 2018 2019 554,789 562,332 551,927 559,048 586.703 585,205 589,170 596,376 580,370 588,799 590,086 2020 2021