C Climate Change and Tourism - Responding to Global Challenges THE WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION is the only intergovernmental organization that serves as a global forum for tourism policy and issues. Its Members include 160 countries and territories as well as over 350 Affiliate Members from the public and private sectors. UNWTO's mission is to promote and develop tourism as a significant means of fostering international peace and understanding, economic development and international trade. www.UNWTO.org M Y CM MY CY CMY K Climate Change and Tourism Responding to Global Challenges Climate Change and Tourism Responding to Global Challenges UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Copyright 2008 World Tourism Organization and United Nations Environment Programme Climate Change and Tourism - Responding to Global Challenges ISBN: 978-92-844-1234-1 (UNWTO) ISBN: 978-92-807-2886-6 (UNEP) Published by the World Tourism Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme Printed by the World Tourism Organization, Madrid, Spain First printing 2008 All rights reserved The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Tourism Organization or the United Nations Environment Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimination of its frontiers and boundaries. 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UNWTO encourages dissemination of its work and is pleased to consider permissions, licensing, and translation requests related to UNWTO publications. Permission to photocopy this material in Spain must be obtained through: CEDRO, Centro Espaol de Derechos Reprogrficos Calle Monte Esquinza, 14 28010 Madrid, Spain Tel.: (+34) 91 308 63 30, Fax: (+34) 91 308 63 27 cedro@cedro.org; www.cedro.org For authorization of the reproduction of these works outside of Spain, please contact one of CEDRO's partner organizations, with which bilateral agreements are in place (see: http://www.cedro.org/ingles_funcion_internacional.asp) For all remaining countries as well as for other permissions, requests should be addressed directly to the World Tourism Organization. For applications see: http://www.unwto.org/pub/rights.htm UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Table of Contents Foreword............................................................................................................................. Acknowledgement............................................................................................................. Introduction\t........................................................................................................................ Part I: The International Debate.............................................................................................. 1 Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism (Davos, 1-3 October 2007).................................................................................................. 1.1 Programme of the Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism.................................................................................................... 1.2 Conclusions from the Panel Sessions........................................................................... 1.2.1 Adaptation Responses in Specific Types of Destinations ................................. 1.2.2 Mitigation Responses in Tourism Sub-Sectors.................................................. vii ix xi 1 3 3 6 6 9 2 Davos Declaration: Climate Change and Tourism - Responding to Global Challenges.................................................................................... 13 3 Conclusions of the Ministers' Summit on Tourism and Climate Change (London, United Kingdom, 13 November 2007).................................................................. 17 4 Resolution on Tourism and Climate Change adopted by UNWTO General Assembly, Seventeenth Session (Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, 23-29 November 2007)................................................... 19 5 Statement by Francesco Frangialli, Secretary-General of UNWTO, on the Occasion of the UN Conference on Climate Change (Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, 12 December 2007)................................................................. 21 Part II: Technical Report ......................................................................................................... 23 6 25 25 28 31 32 34 37 Executive Summary........................................................................................................... 6.1 The New Realities of Tourism in an Era of Global Climate Change................................ 6.2 Impacts and Adaptation at Tourism Destinations.......................................................... 6.3 Implications of Climate Change for Tourism Demand Patterns...................................... 6.4 Emissions from Global Climate Tourism: Status and Trends.......................................... 6.5 Mitigation Policies and Measures.................................................................................. 6.6 The Way Forward to Adaptation and Mitigation in Tourism............................................ UNWTO, 9 July 2008 iv 7 Climate Change and Tourism - Responding to Global Challenges Introduction to the Technical Report................................................................................ 7.1 The New Realities of Tourism in an Era of Global Climate Change................................ 7.2 Moving Forward on Understanding the New Realities................................................... 7.3 Purpose and Scope..................................................................................................... 7.4 Who this Report is for................................................................................................... 39 39 40 42 43 8 Advances in Climate Change Science and Implications for the Tourism Sector......... 8.1 Distinguishing Weather, Climate, and Climate Change.................................................. 8.1.1 Definitions........................................................................................................ 8.1.2 Relationships between Climate, Weather and Tourism...................................... 8.1.3 The Importance of Weather Forecasts and Climate Prediction for the Tourism Sector........................................................................................... 8.2 Advances in the Understanding of Global Climate Change........................................... 8.2.1 Regional and Local Climate Change: Why Downscaling is Critical for Tourism....................................................................................................... 8.3 Latest Results on Past and Future Climate Change...................................................... 8.3.1 The Changing Climate...................................................................................... 8.3.2 Human Influence on Climate Change............................................................... 8.3.3 Global Climate Change in the 21st Century...................................................... 8.3.4 Regional Climate Change in the 21st Century.................................................. 8.4 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 45 45 45 46 46 48 50 52 52 53 54 55 58 9 Impacts and Adaptation at Tourism Destinations........................................................... 9.1 Impacts on Tourism Supply.......................................................................................... 9.1.1 Overview.......................................................................................................... 9.1.2 Mountain and Winter Sports Destinations........................................................ 9.1.3 Impacts on Islands and Coastal Zones............................................................. 9.1.4 Impacts on Natural and Cultural Heritage......................................................... 9.2 Adaptation to Climate Change..................................................................................... 9.2.1 Overview.......................................................................................................... 9.2.2 Adaptation to Extreme Events and Natural Disasters........................................ 9.2.3 Adaptation to Changes in Environmental Resources: Conservation of Natural Ecosystems to Enhance their Resilience and the Rational and Efficient Use of Scarce Resources . ................................................................. 9.2.4 Adaptation in Mountain Destinations................................................................ 9.2.5 Adaptation in Small Island Destinations............................................................ 9.2.6 Adaptation in Natural and Cultural Heritage Destinations.................................. 9.3 Adaptation Policy......................................................................................................... 9.4 Conclusion................................................................................................................... 86 88 92 95 96 99 10 Implications of Climate Change for Tourism Demand.................................................... 10.1 Consumer Response to a Changing Climate................................................................ 10.1.1 Changes in Global Demand Patterns............................................................... 10.1.2 Changes in Regional-local Demand Patterns.................................................... 10.2 Demand Implications of Climate-induced Environmental Change................................. 10.3 Demand Implications of Mitigation Policies and Tourism Mobility.................................. 103 103 104 108 112 116 UNWTO, 9 July 2008 61 61 61 68 72 77 81 81 84 Table of Contents v 10.4 Demand Implications of Climate-induced Societal Change........................................... 118 10.5 Conclusion................................................................................................................... 119 11 Emissions from Tourism: Status and Trends................................................................... 11.1 Current CO2 Emissions and Radiative Forcing from Tourism......................................... 11.1.1 Introduction: Global Tourism Demand.............................................................. 11.1.2 Transport Emissions......................................................................................... 11.1.3 Accommodation.............................................................................................. 11.1.4 Other Tourism Activities . ................................................................................. 11.1.5 Total CO2 Emissions and RF from Global Tourism in 2005................................ 11.1.6 CO2 Emissions from Intra-regional and Interregional Travel .............................. 11.2 Emissions Related to Individual Holiday........................................................................ 11.3 Scenario on the Development of Emissions from Tourism............................................. 11.4 Conclusion................................................................................................................... 121 122 122 123 130 131 132 134 139 140 144 12 Mitigation Policies and Measures..................................................................................... 12.1 Transport...................................................................................................................... 12.1.1 Air Transport.................................................................................................... 12.1.2 Surface Transport............................................................................................. 12.1.3 Modal Shift....................................................................................................... 12.1.4 Destination Mobility Management..................................................................... 12.1.5 Transport Policies............................................................................................. 12.2 Tourism Establishments................................................................................................ 12.2.1 Technological Mitigation Options...................................................................... 12.2.2 Integrated Emission Management.................................................................... 12.2.3 Policies for Tourism Establishments and Destinations....................................... 12.3 The Role of Tour Operators and other Organizations.................................................... 12.4 Tourist Behaviour.......................................................................................................... 12.4.1 Sustainable Demand and Consumer Choices.................................................. 12.4.2 Carbon Offsetting............................................................................................. 12.4.3 Long-haul Travel Reductions and Poverty Alleviation........................................ 12.5 Tourism Mitigation Scenarios......................................................................................... 12.6 Conclusion.................................................................................................................... 145 146 146 149 152 153 155 158 158 163 166 167 167 168 168 169 170 172 13 175 175 176 177 177 178 179 The Way Forward to Adaptation and Mitigation in Tourism........................................... 13.1 Key Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism................................................................. 13.2 Adaptation to Climate Change..................................................................................... 13.3 The Contribution of Tourism to Climate Change............................................................ 13.4 Mitigation Potential....................................................................................................... 13.5 Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs........................................................................ 13.6 Time Horizons.............................................................................................................. UNWTO, 9 July 2008 vi Climate Change and Tourism - Responding to Global Challenges Annex 1 Methodological Note on UNWTO's Estimates on Worldwide Tourism Volumes. A1.1 Methodological Note on UNWTO's Estimates on Worldwide Tourism Volumes............. A1.1.1 Definitions........................................................................................................ A1.1.2 Basic Tourism Facts......................................................................................... A1.1.3 UNWTO's Estimates on World Tourism Volumes.............................................. A1.1.4 Sources of Data............................................................................................... A1.2 Tables of UNWTO Aproximates of Consistent Worldwide Tourism Volumes.................. 181 181 181 182 183 184 186 Annex 2 Emission Calculations.............................................................................................. 191 A2.1 General Method for Emission Inventories...................................................................... 191 A2.2 Detailed Calculations.................................................................................................... 191 A2.2.1 Transport Modal Split, Volumes and Emissions................................................ 191 A2.2.2 Tourism's Share in Aviation............................................................................... 194 A2.2.3 Accommodation ............................................................................................. 196 List of Abbreviations ......................................................................................................... 197 List of Boxes ...................................................................................................................... 199 List of Tables....................................................................................................................... 203 List of References.............................................................................................................. 205 Bibliography........................................................................................................................ 237 List of Figures..................................................................................................................... 201 UNWTO, 9 July 2008 Foreword The Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism (Davos, Switzerland, October 2007) was a milestone event that brought together a wide variety of stakeholders and delivered a clear commitment for action to respond to the climate change challenge. It underscored the need for the tourism sector to rapidly respond to climate change if it is to develop in a sustainable manner, which will require actions to: mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from the tourism sector, derived especially from transport and accommodation activities; adapt tourism businesses and destinations to changing climate conditions; apply existing and new technologies to improve energy efficiency; and secure financial resources to assist regions and countries in need. The Davos Declaration highlighting these actions is a huge step forward and presents concrete recommendations to the key interest groups involved in tourism. This is indeed necessary, considering that tourism is today one of the world's largest economic sectors, and represents an activity that forms an integral part of modern societies in both developed and developing countries. It is, above all, a vital element in poverty reduction efforts and for the achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals. In the context of the Davos meeting, the report \"Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges\