Calculate the seasonal factor for year 2003 - Seasonal factor in 2003= Actual demand in each period-Average of actual demands over the first year ( 12 Months) - Note: don't forget to lock cells for average of actual demands if you want to drag the cell (To lock the cell, select the formula and press F4) Calculate base level and trend for December 2013 (period 12) - Base level=Actual demand in period 12-seasonal factor in period 12 - Trend=0 Use formulas to calculate base level, trend, and seasonal factor for year 2004, 2005, 2006 , and 2007 - Base level in period 13=Alpha*(actual demand in period 13- seasonal factor in period 1) +(1 Alpha) (base level in period 12+ trend in period 12) - Trend=Beta*(base level in period 13-base level in period 12)+(1-beta)*trend in period 12 - Seasonal factor=Gamma*(actual demand in period 13-actual demand in period 12)+(1-gamma)* seasonal factor in period 1 - Drag the cell down until period 60 Forecasting-out of sample forecasting - Forecast in period 61 base level in period 60+ trend in period 60+ seasonal factor in period 49 - Forecast in period 62= base level in period 60+2 trend in period 60+ seasonal factor in period 50 - Forecast in period 63= base level in period 60+3 trend in period 60+ seasonal factor in period 51 - Forecast in period 64= base level in period 60+4 *trend in period 60+ seasonal factor in period 52 - Forecast in period 65= base level in period 60+5 trend in period 60+ seasonal factor in period 53 - Continue calculating forecast until period 72 EXHBIT 1 Monthly sales, 2000-2004. \begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline A & B & C & D & E & F \\ \hline 1 & & & & & \\ \hline 2 & & & & & \\ \hline 3 & & & & & \\ \hline 4 & & & & & \\ \hline 5 & & 2008 & January & 61 & \\ \hline 6 & & 2008 & February & 62 & \\ \hline 7 & & 2008 & March & 63 & \\ \hline 8 & & 2008 & April & 64 & \\ \hline 9 & & 2008 & May & 65 & \\ \hline 10 & & 2008 & June & 66 & \\ \hline 11 & & 2008 & July & 67 & \\ \hline 12 & & 2008 & August & 68 & \\ \hline 13 & & 2008 & September & 69 & \\ \hline 14 & & 2008 & October & 70 & \\ \hline 15 & & 2008 & November & 71 & \\ \hline \end{tabular} Calculate the seasonal factor for year 2003 - Seasonal factor in 2003= Actual demand in each period-Average of actual demands over the first year ( 12 Months) - Note: don't forget to lock cells for average of actual demands if you want to drag the cell (To lock the cell, select the formula and press F4) Calculate base level and trend for December 2013 (period 12) - Base level=Actual demand in period 12-seasonal factor in period 12 - Trend=0 Use formulas to calculate base level, trend, and seasonal factor for year 2004, 2005, 2006 , and 2007 - Base level in period 13=Alpha*(actual demand in period 13- seasonal factor in period 1) +(1 Alpha) (base level in period 12+ trend in period 12) - Trend=Beta*(base level in period 13-base level in period 12)+(1-beta)*trend in period 12 - Seasonal factor=Gamma*(actual demand in period 13-actual demand in period 12)+(1-gamma)* seasonal factor in period 1 - Drag the cell down until period 60 Forecasting-out of sample forecasting - Forecast in period 61 base level in period 60+ trend in period 60+ seasonal factor in period 49 - Forecast in period 62= base level in period 60+2 trend in period 60+ seasonal factor in period 50 - Forecast in period 63= base level in period 60+3 trend in period 60+ seasonal factor in period 51 - Forecast in period 64= base level in period 60+4 *trend in period 60+ seasonal factor in period 52 - Forecast in period 65= base level in period 60+5 trend in period 60+ seasonal factor in period 53 - Continue calculating forecast until period 72 EXHBIT 1 Monthly sales, 2000-2004. \begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline A & B & C & D & E & F \\ \hline 1 & & & & & \\ \hline 2 & & & & & \\ \hline 3 & & & & & \\ \hline 4 & & & & & \\ \hline 5 & & 2008 & January & 61 & \\ \hline 6 & & 2008 & February & 62 & \\ \hline 7 & & 2008 & March & 63 & \\ \hline 8 & & 2008 & April & 64 & \\ \hline 9 & & 2008 & May & 65 & \\ \hline 10 & & 2008 & June & 66 & \\ \hline 11 & & 2008 & July & 67 & \\ \hline 12 & & 2008 & August & 68 & \\ \hline 13 & & 2008 & September & 69 & \\ \hline 14 & & 2008 & October & 70 & \\ \hline 15 & & 2008 & November & 71 & \\ \hline \end{tabular}