CAN YOU DO THE FINACIAL ANALYSIS, EXCEL FORCAST (data is given in picture attached)AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THIS CASE?

The Dog and Duck

Dave Cowan had retired early from his position as office manager in a large company. At age 57; he had a reasonable pension and some capital that he had saved. Dave had lived in Rockwood for 30 years and was reasonably well known in the community. He was active in a service club, on the executive of a soccer league and a hockey league, and worked with some local charities and fund-raising activities. He was a physically fit and active man who enjoyed challenges and was growing restless in his retirement.

Dave wanted to invest in a small business, not only to add to his income, but also as an entrepreneurial venture that would be challenging and interesting for him. He was considering buying The Dog and Duck, a British pub located in Rockwood. The pub was located on the edge of town, on the main road running through Rockwood. It was a five- minute walk from the GO train station.

Rockwood is an Ontario town of 21,000 people about 70km from Toronto. In recent years, its population has grown quite rapidly as people have moved from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) into less crowded communities with lower real estate prices and a community lifestyle that suits them. Most of these recent arrivals are reasonably prosperous family people who commute daily to professional jobs in the GTA.

The Dog and Duck is presently owned by Jeff Berry, who lives in George burgh, which is 30 km from Rockwood. Berry was a corporate lawyer in Toronto. He bought the pub as an investment in 2010 after his investment portfolio of stocks lost 50% of its value, as a result of the 2009 financial crisis.

The previous owner had been Henry Montagu, who had managed it himself and had actually lived on the premises, in a modest apartment over the pub. Henry sold The Dog and Duck Pub to Berry before retiring and moving back to Manchester, England. In the five years before the sale, the pub's sales had been rising and profits had been good. In fact, as a percentage of sales, profits had been better than the industry average over the last two years that Montagu owned it.

Berry's impression was that while the business was profitable, profits could be increased, mainly through better control of expenses. Montagu had spent a considerable amount on things that Berry found questionable. In particular, labor costs seemed high. Wage expenses (mostly for the servers) were 25% of sales, as compared to only 20% for chains like Boston Pizza and Milestones; the difference in 2009 being nearly $40,000 per year. Also, sponsorship of local sports teams alone cost $20,000 per year, and the pub's participation in a wide variety of community events such as baseball and golf tournaments was costing another $10,000 to $15,000 per year. Berry was not interested in running the pub himself, so he hired a manager from out of town for $50,000 per year plus one percent of the gross sales. Berry regarded Montagu as an old, out-of-date

amateur who had been careless with expenses and fortunate to be as successful as he was with The Dog and Duck. He believed that with modern, professional management, the pub might even become profitable enough to allow him to buy a 42-foot yacht like the one a lawyer friend of his owned.

To help pay for the manager's salary, Berry rented out the apartment over the pub for

$1,000 per month and reduced spending on "incidentals" such as team sponsorships, community events and so on. In addition, he directed the manager to reduce wage expenses from 25 % of sales to 20%, and reduced expenditures on entertainment by 15%.

However, Berry found himself disappointed with his investment. In 2013, three years after he bought the pum, sales were actually slightly lower than in 2009, and profits had decreased. From 2013 to 2015, Berry decided to further cut expenses. He reduced staffing in order to cut labour costs, and postponed planned renovations involving replacement of worn upholstery on furniture and new paint and wallpaper. He directed the manager to concentrate more on providing high-volume, lower-cost beer and reduced offerings of more expensive imported brews. However, both sales and profits continued on their gradual downward trend, and Berry eventually concluded that this business was at the end of its product life cycle. Berry decided to put Dog and Duck up for sale.

Dave Cowan read up on the market for pubs, and learned that it is a market that has changed considerably in recent years. From the 1990's through the 2000's, the market was dominated by "roadhouse" bars and restaurants such as Kelsey's or Boston Pizza. These were big bars, 500 square meters (5,000 square feet) or larger with no intimacy, high noise levels and food menus that offered standard items with no product differentiation - a sort of "mass-production" approach to the business.

A few years after the recession of 2009-2010 had damaged sales and profits of almost all restaurants and bars, customers began to venture out again. Now, the trend was away from hard liquor and big, noisy bars and toward smaller, more intimate neighborhood pubs and premium craft and imported beers. As the baby boomers aged, people were spending more time at home, and near home, in their neighborhood. The over-40 age group, with its high spending power, spends considerable time with its elaborate home entertainment systems, and does almost all of its basic shopping within a 10 km radius of home. These people wanted to socialize close to home in a comfortable, cozy and friendly atmosphere. To these people, service, quality and a welcoming atmosphere were more important than price. A neighborhood pub, close to home, and with the "flavor of England" -- a place "where everybody knows your name"?could provide just this, according to the literature Dave had read.

The price of the pub would be about $250,000¹. Since Dave Cowan had about $100,000 of his own money, he would have to borrow about $150,000, which would add interest expenses of approximately $9,000 per year to the pub's income statement.

1 Businesses such as these tend to sell for 30-40% of gross sales.

Dave discussed the matter with a friend, who told Dave that he wished that he had seen that The Dog and Duck was for sale first. He thought that the pub had real potential, especially if it were managed by its owner and managed well. He noted that this would involve a lot of work, but could be quite rewarding financially.

Dave then consulted with his bank manager, who was noticeably less enthusiastic about the pub as an investment. He confirmed that the bank would loan Dave the funds needed to buy the pub; however, the bank manager pointed out that this was a very competitive and high-risk industry. He suggested that Dave consider carefully whether a man his age should go that far into debt. The bank manager also pointed out that Dave could invest his savings with the bank at a guaranteed annual interest rates of approximately 3.0%, and thus earn another $3,000 per year rather than pay about $9,000 annually in interest on a loan. He observed that, together with Dave's pension, this would provide him with a secure income for his retirement years.

Finally, Dave comes to you for advice. What would you suggest?

On the following page are the income statements for:

2009, the last full year the pub was owned by Henry Montagu

2015, the most recent year of operation under the ownership of Jeff Berry.

THE DOG AND DUCK PUB Income Statement 2009 2015 5'000 % 8'00!) % Sales $ 830 100.0% $ 705 100.0% Cost of Goods Sotd 332 40.0% 315 44.7% Gross Prot 498 60.0% 390 55.3% Expenses: Management Salaries I 40" 4.8% 57 8.1% Labour: Wages 205 24.7% 133 18.9% Payroll Taxes 17 2.0% 13 1 8% Rent 66 8.0% 74 10.5% Common Area 5 0.6% 7 1.0% Promotion 42 5.1% 13 1.8% Insurance 7 0.8% 12 1.7% Hydro 12 1.4% 25 3.5% Natural Gas 13 1.6% 13 1.8% Telephone 2 0.2% 2 0.3% Depreciation 10 1.2% 6 0.9% Miscellaneous 2 0.2% 2 0.3% Totat Expenses 421 50.7% 357 50.6% _Operating Profit 77 9.3% 33 4.7% Other Income 0 0.0% 12 1.7% Other Expenses 0 0.0% 3 0.4% Earnings before Tax 77 9.3% 42 0 Income Tax 23 2.8% 11 0 Net Income $ 54 6.5% $ 32 4.5% Notes: 1. Other Income of $12,000 in 2008 is the rent on the apartment. Expenses related to this Income are in the Miscellaneous Expenses line. 2. Management Salaries. In 2009, Montague paid himself a satary of $40,000 as owner! manager. In 2015, a salary of $50,000 was paid to the hired manager (plus 1% of gross sales) 3. Rent. 2,000 square feet at $33 pre square foot in 2003 and $37 in 2008. 4. Common area costs. Refers to upkeep, snow removal, e10