Question
Can you help me with the below please. The fiscal year for moonie agencies start in April of each year. Tax offices are government agencies.
Can you help me with the below please.
The fiscal year for moonie agencies start in April of each year. Tax offices are government agencies. The manager at the tax office in Ransville has documented the number of paying customers for the 12 months for the last fiscal year as follows.
Month | Number of Paying Customers |
April | 150 |
May | 200 |
June | 100 |
July | 320 |
August | 220 |
September | 270 |
October | 310 |
November | 280 |
December | 190 |
January | 150 |
February | 230 |
March | 250 |
a) Compute the 4 and 5 month moving average forecast for the data b) Conduct an error analysis using Mean Absolute Deviation for the 4 and 5 month forecast in a) above
c) Compute the 3 month weighted moving average, given that the manager has allotted weights of 2, 3, 4 where the most recent data is given the highest weight
d) What is the MAD for the 3 month weighted moving average?
e) With exponential smoothing constants of = 0.2 and = 0.4 compute both exponential smoothing forecast f) Which exponential smoothing constant do you prefer, = 0.2 or = 0.4 and why using MAD as the deciding criteria
g) Of all the forecasting methods above (i.e 4 and 5 month moving average, 3 month weighted moving average, exponential smoothing of 0.2 and of 0.4) which method provides the best forecast and why
h) The Linstead tax office collects on average $3,500.00 from each paying customer. Using the preferred method, how much can the manager expect to collect in the first month of the new fiscal year.
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