Can you help with the two questions?

(This is from the Meteorology class.)

I'll give thumbs up for sure if you can solve this.

Thank you.

Meteorology 10 An Introduction to Non-Model Weather Forecasting Weather Forecasters have a handful of tools available to them in order to make weather forecasts: A Persistence forecast is made when the forecaster assumes that the current weather conditions will stay the same. Ex: If today's high temperature is 75F tomorrow's high will also be 75F Strengths: Easy to do... accurate in the VERY short term. Weaknesses: Won't be accurate for long... weather conditions are constantly changing. A Trend forecast occurs when a forecast is made based on an observed trend. The forecaster assumes that the trend will continue. Ex: Yesterday: 65F, Today: 70F... Tomorrow: 75F (assuming that the temperature will rise another 5 degrees between today and tomorrow). Strengths: Also easy to do... accurate assuming trend continues. Weaknesses: Trends don't last forever... Would forecast extreme high/low temperatures pretty quickly! . An Analog forecast takes history into account. A meteorologist looks at a similar weather event that occurred in the past and assumes that the same outcome will occur this time as well. Ex: The last time we had an El Nino, it rained a lot... We current have an El Nino, so we should expect a lot of rain. Strengths: Past weather events give us pretty good ideas of what might happen in the future. Weaknesses: No two weather situations are identical. Also, forecasters can become tunnel-visioned using this method... for example, the 2015-2016 El Nino was supposed to given Southern California insane amounts of rain... forecasters insisted all the way until March that 'It's coming!" ... it never came A Climatological forecast uses the 30-year average weather conditions (aka the "normal") for the given date to forecast the weather. This method relies on knowing what the average ("normal") temperatures/other weather conditions for the given date is. Ex: The average high temperature for June 6th is 78F (Source: weather.gov). Therefore, the forecast high will be 78F. Strengths: Easy to do... Also based on previous averages. Weaknesses: "Averages usually mean that there are substantial days where temperatures were above/below the average. In fact, averages rarely verify (turn out to be correct). . NOTES: Looking at the sky can also tell Meteorologists a lot about possible weather changes: Red Sky at Night, Sailor's Delight! What this means is that when the sky is red at sunset, clouds are present to the EAST of the setting sun... since weather usually travels from west-to-east in the mid-latitudes, this means that the storm has passed... fair weather is on the way Red Sky at Morning, Sailor's Warning! What this means is that when the sky is red at sunrise, clouds are present to the WEST... A storm is approaching. A Halo around the sun (or moon) indicates the presence of cirrostratus clouds, which are common ahead of a warm front. An approaching warm front usually means an approaching mid-latitude cyclone... stormy weather is on the way. . Strengths to these methods: VERY easy to do... require practically no weather instrumentation or computer technology... in fact, the first two are so old that they are mentioned in ancient texts (including the Christian Bible). Fairly reliable. Weaknesses to these methods: Only useful in mid-latitudes (where storms blow from west-to- east). There could easily be other reasons why clouds are present to the east of a setting sun or west of a rising sun (such as a marine layer). Short Range vs. Long Range forecasts: Short-Range (1-5 days) forecasts are usually very accurate. However, since weather models base the forecast for a long term day (such as day b) on what was forecast for the day before (day 5), errors in day 5's forecast will be amplified for day 6. My rule of thumb is that if you should check the weather forecast every day to see what changes may occur... but if you can't, usually the first 72 hours (3 days) are very accurate... the next 2 days are pretty-close, whereas days 6-10 can give you an excellent ballpark of what the weather might be during that period... but you'll want to check back! NOTES: Meteorology 10 Module 11 Activity Directions: Answer the questions below on the answer sheet at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeg-EOw609Apiw33R- hzyYFzkBSmyGmFXFY.J48u9wv_81_Fcg/viewform Activity #1 1. (4pts): Describe the four types of non-model forecasting (Persistence, Trend, Analogue, and Climatologically forecasting), AND Explain how you would use these techniques in making a weather forecast (which you will do in the activity below). 2. (6pts): Based on the definitions from question #2 and the data in the table below, make a separate forecast for tomorrow for Cupertino based on each of the above methods (except analogue). Explain why you made this forecast: NOTE: If you don't have enough information to forecast a variable, put N/A, and explain why in the "Why?" section. Data for Cupertino, CA (NOTE: This data was taken from the De Anza college weather station). Cupertino, CA: Precip High Temp (F) 61F Wind Speed Cloud Cover Yesterday 13 mph 20% 0.00 in Today 70F 16mph 10% 0.00 in 66F N/A N/A 0.06 in Tomorrow Climatological Persistence forecast for TOMORROW: Temperature Wind Speed (F) (mph) Precipitation Cloud Cover Why? Trend forecast for TOMORROW: Temperature Wind Speed (F) (mph) Precipitation Cloud Cover Why? Climatological forecast for TOMORROW: Temperature Wind Speed (F) (mph) Precipitation Cloud Cover Why? Meteorology 10 An Introduction to Non-Model Weather Forecasting Weather Forecasters have a handful of tools available to them in order to make weather forecasts: A Persistence forecast is made when the forecaster assumes that the current weather conditions will stay the same. Ex: If today's high temperature is 75F tomorrow's high will also be 75F Strengths: Easy to do... accurate in the VERY short term. Weaknesses: Won't be accurate for long... weather conditions are constantly changing. A Trend forecast occurs when a forecast is made based on an observed trend. The forecaster assumes that the trend will continue. Ex: Yesterday: 65F, Today: 70F... Tomorrow: 75F (assuming that the temperature will rise another 5 degrees between today and tomorrow). Strengths: Also easy to do... accurate assuming trend continues. Weaknesses: Trends don't last forever... Would forecast extreme high/low temperatures pretty quickly! . An Analog forecast takes history into account. A meteorologist looks at a similar weather event that occurred in the past and assumes that the same outcome will occur this time as well. Ex: The last time we had an El Nino, it rained a lot... We current have an El Nino, so we should expect a lot of rain. Strengths: Past weather events give us pretty good ideas of what might happen in the future. Weaknesses: No two weather situations are identical. Also, forecasters can become tunnel-visioned using this method... for example, the 2015-2016 El Nino was supposed to given Southern California insane amounts of rain... forecasters insisted all the way until March that 'It's coming!" ... it never came A Climatological forecast uses the 30-year average weather conditions (aka the "normal") for the given date to forecast the weather. This method relies on knowing what the average ("normal") temperatures/other weather conditions for the given date is. Ex: The average high temperature for June 6th is 78F (Source: weather.gov). Therefore, the forecast high will be 78F. Strengths: Easy to do... Also based on previous averages. Weaknesses: "Averages usually mean that there are substantial days where temperatures were above/below the average. In fact, averages rarely verify (turn out to be correct). . NOTES: Looking at the sky can also tell Meteorologists a lot about possible weather changes: Red Sky at Night, Sailor's Delight! What this means is that when the sky is red at sunset, clouds are present to the EAST of the setting sun... since weather usually travels from west-to-east in the mid-latitudes, this means that the storm has passed... fair weather is on the way Red Sky at Morning, Sailor's Warning! What this means is that when the sky is red at sunrise, clouds are present to the WEST... A storm is approaching. A Halo around the sun (or moon) indicates the presence of cirrostratus clouds, which are common ahead of a warm front. An approaching warm front usually means an approaching mid-latitude cyclone... stormy weather is on the way. . Strengths to these methods: VERY easy to do... require practically no weather instrumentation or computer technology... in fact, the first two are so old that they are mentioned in ancient texts (including the Christian Bible). Fairly reliable. Weaknesses to these methods: Only useful in mid-latitudes (where storms blow from west-to- east). There could easily be other reasons why clouds are present to the east of a setting sun or west of a rising sun (such as a marine layer). Short Range vs. Long Range forecasts: Short-Range (1-5 days) forecasts are usually very accurate. However, since weather models base the forecast for a long term day (such as day b) on what was forecast for the day before (day 5), errors in day 5's forecast will be amplified for day 6. My rule of thumb is that if you should check the weather forecast every day to see what changes may occur... but if you can't, usually the first 72 hours (3 days) are very accurate... the next 2 days are pretty-close, whereas days 6-10 can give you an excellent ballpark of what the weather might be during that period... but you'll want to check back! NOTES: Meteorology 10 Module 11 Activity Directions: Answer the questions below on the answer sheet at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeg-EOw609Apiw33R- hzyYFzkBSmyGmFXFY.J48u9wv_81_Fcg/viewform Activity #1 1. (4pts): Describe the four types of non-model forecasting (Persistence, Trend, Analogue, and Climatologically forecasting), AND Explain how you would use these techniques in making a weather forecast (which you will do in the activity below). 2. (6pts): Based on the definitions from question #2 and the data in the table below, make a separate forecast for tomorrow for Cupertino based on each of the above methods (except analogue). Explain why you made this forecast: NOTE: If you don't have enough information to forecast a variable, put N/A, and explain why in the "Why?" section. Data for Cupertino, CA (NOTE: This data was taken from the De Anza college weather station). Cupertino, CA: Precip High Temp (F) 61F Wind Speed Cloud Cover Yesterday 13 mph 20% 0.00 in Today 70F 16mph 10% 0.00 in 66F N/A N/A 0.06 in Tomorrow Climatological Persistence forecast for TOMORROW: Temperature Wind Speed (F) (mph) Precipitation Cloud Cover Why? Trend forecast for TOMORROW: Temperature Wind Speed (F) (mph) Precipitation Cloud Cover Why? Climatological forecast for TOMORROW: Temperature Wind Speed (F) (mph) Precipitation Cloud Cover Why