Carry out the Classical Time Series Decomposition for the quarterly data given.

USE MAPE FOR THE BEST MODEL SELECTION CRITERION FOR ALL MODELS. USE EVOLUTIONARY SOLVING METHOD IN EXCEL SOLVER FOR ALL MODELS, EXCEPT MA.

Use the best of either 2 or 3 periods moving average for MA model only. Find out the forecast for 17th

period and the forecast error.

Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

1 3548 4512 5421 3897

2 4215 4218 5247 3879

3 3789 4987 5012 3254

4 4010 5212 4987 4000

5 3888 4345 5782 4111

A) 17th period forecast=5240, forecast error=6.39%

B) 17th period forecast=4980, forecast error=5.88%

C) 17th period forecast=6021, forecast error=4.03%

D) 17th period forecast=5420, forecast error=6.27%

E) None