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Case 2: Decision analysis (40 marks) Mr. Investor has a choice of investing in stocks (buying stocks 1 and 2} or keeping money in a
Case 2: Decision analysis (40 marks) Mr. Investor has a choice of investing in stocks (buying stocks 1 and 2} or keeping money in a savings account. The probabilities that the prices of these stocks will go up, stay the same, or go down are 0.25, 0.30, and 0.45, respectively. If the prices go up, stock 1 will make $30,000 and stock 2 will make $10,000. If the prices remain unchanged, there will be break even. If prices go down, stocks 1 and 2 will sustain losses of $35,000 and 55,000, respectively. If he keeps money in savings account, he is guaranteed a payoff of $5,000 as earning on interest. Some information from a broker regarding the degree of stability of future prices of stocks indicate favorable and unfavorable assessments by the following conditional probabilities P(Favourable | Up} = 0.85 PlUnfavourable | Up} = 0.15 P(Favourable | Same) =0.50 PlUnfavourable | Same) = 0.50 P(Favourable | Down} =0.15 PlUnfavourable | Down) =0.85 Should Mr. Investor invest in stocks or keep money in savings account? If he decides to invest in stocks, then which stock{s} should he buy? To find out the solution, address below requests: 1. Define decision alternatives, states of nature, and consequence. 2. Develop a decision tree indicating branches along with probability values
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