Case 3: Modified Instructions

You have just been hired by Internal Business Machines Corporation (IBM) in their capital budgeting division. Your first assignment is to determine the free cash flows and NPV of a proposed new type of tablet computer similar in size to an iPad but with the operating power of a high-end desktop system.

Note: Use 'Table 8.3' on page 247 as a guide to set up your FCF estimates.

Point 1: Development of the new system will initially require an initial capital expenditure equal to 10% of IBM's Net Property, Plant, and Equipment (PPE) in 2019 or data from 12/31/2019.

Point 2: The product is expected to have a life of five years.

Point 3: First-year revenues for the new product are expected to be 3% of IBM's total revenue for the using fiscal year 2019 or data from 12/31/2019.

Point 4: The new product's revenues are expected to grow at 15% for the second year then 10% for the third and 5% annually for the final two years of the expected life of the project.

Your job is to determine the rest of the cash flows associated with this project. Your boss has indicated that the operating costs and net working capital requirements are similar to the rest of the company (implying the project will have the same ratio of EBITDA to sales and working capital to sales) and that depreciation is straight-line (over 5 years) for capital budgeting purposes. Since your boss hasn't been much help (welcome to the "real world"!), here are some tips to guide your analysis:

Point 5: Use the data from the spreadsheet that I have provided.

Point 6: Determine the annual depreciation by assuming IBM depreciates these assets by the straight-line method over a five-year life (i.e., depreciate the 'cost of the new system' in Point 1).

Point 7: Determine IBM's tax rate by using the current U.S. federal corporate income tax rate (Use an estimated 21% for the corporate tax rate).

Point 8: In year 1, you are going to increase NWC using the NWC / Sales ratio for IBM in 12/31/2019 using only A/R, A/P, and inventory to measure NWC (use Table 8.3 and 8.4 as a guide for how to bring the increase in NWC into your FCF estimate in year one and take it back out in year 5for simplicity purposes we are going to assume that NWC remains fixed in years 2 through 4 and then it is recaptured in year 5).

Point 9: To determine the free cash flow, deduct the additional capital investment and the change in net working capital each year (note: using information from Point 8, the NWC will only change in years 1 and 5see Table 8.3 line item 12 and Table 8.4 as an example).

Point 10: Use Excel to determine the NPV of the project with a 12% cost of capital. Also calculate the IRR of the project using Excel's IRR function.

Point 11: Perform a sensitivity analysis by varying the project forecasts as follows:

a. Suppose first year sales will equal 2%-4% of IBM's revenues.

b. Suppose the cost of capital is 10%-15%.

c. Suppose revenue growth is constant after the first year at a rate of 0%-10%.

Year Total Revenue Cost of Revenue Gross Profit Operating Expense Operating Income Net Non Operating Interest Income Expense Other Income Expense Pretax Income Tax Provision Net Income Common Stockholders Average Dilution Earnings Diluted NI Available to Com Stockholders Basic EPS Diluted EPS Basic Average Shares Diluted Average Shares Total Expenses Net Income from Continuing & Discontinued Operation Normalized Income Interest Income Interest Expense Net Interest Income EBIT EBITDA Reconciled Cost of Revenue Reconciled Depreciation Net Income from Continuing Operation Net Minority Interest Total Unusual Items Excluding Goodwill Total Unusual Items Normalized EBITDA Tax Rate for Calcs Tax Effect of Unusual Items 12/31/2020 12/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 73,621,000 77,147,000 79,590,000 79,139,000 38,046,000 40,659,000 42,655,000 42,913,000 35,575,000 36,488,000 36,936,000 36,227,000 28,680,000 25,857,000 23,651,000 24,372,000 6,895,000 10,631,000 13,285,000 11,855,000 -1,183,000 -995,000 -459,000 -471,000 -1,074,000 529,000 -1,482,000 17,000 4,637,000 10,166,000 11,342,000 11,400,000 -864,000 731,000 2,619,000 5,642,000 5,590,000 9,431,000 8,728,000 5,753,000 -2,000 0 -6,000 -2,000 5,588,000 9,431,000 8,722,000 5,752,000 10.63 9.57 6.17 10.56 9.52 6.14 887,200 912,000 932,800 892,800 916,300 937,400 66,726,000 66,516,000 66,306,000 67,285,000 5,590,000 9,431,000 8,728,000 5,753,000 5,574,000 9,242,904 8,702,237 5,817,400 105,000 349,000 264,000 144,000 1,288,000 1,344,000 723,000 615,000 -1,183,000 -995,000 -459,000 -471,000 5,925,000 11,510,000 12,065,000 12,015,000 32,474,000 35,362,000 38,610,000 38,868,000 6,695,000 6,059,000 4,480,000 4,541,000 5,501,000 9,435,000 8,723,000 5,758,000 -100,000 207,000 27,000 -99,000 207,000 27,000 -99,000 -100,000 12,720,000 17,362,000 16,518,000 16,655,000 0 0 0 0 -27,000 14,904 6,237 -39,600 Year Total Revenue Cost of Revenue Gross Profit Operating Expense Operating Income Net Non Operating Interest Income Expense Other Income Expense Pretax Income Tax Provision Net Income Common Stockholders Average Dilution Earnings Diluted NI Available to Com Stockholders Basic EPS Diluted EPS Basic Average Shares Diluted Average Shares Total Expenses Net Income from Continuing & Discontinued Operation Normalized Income Interest Income Interest Expense Net Interest Income EBIT EBITDA Reconciled Cost of Revenue Reconciled Depreciation Net Income from Continuing Operation Net Minority Interest Total Unusual Items Excluding Goodwill Total Unusual Items Normalized EBITDA Tax Rate for Calcs Tax Effect of Unusual Items 12/31/2020 12/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 73,621,000 77,147,000 79,590,000 79,139,000 38,046,000 40,659,000 42,655,000 42,913,000 35,575,000 36,488,000 36,936,000 36,227,000 28,680,000 25,857,000 23,651,000 24,372,000 6,895,000 10,631,000 13,285,000 11,855,000 -1,183,000 -995,000 -459,000 -471,000 -1,074,000 529,000 -1,482,000 17,000 4,637,000 10,166,000 11,342,000 11,400,000 -864,000 731,000 2,619,000 5,642,000 5,590,000 9,431,000 8,728,000 5,753,000 -2,000 0 -6,000 -2,000 5,588,000 9,431,000 8,722,000 5,752,000 10.63 9.57 6.17 10.56 9.52 6.14 887,200 912,000 932,800 892,800 916,300 937,400 66,726,000 66,516,000 66,306,000 67,285,000 5,590,000 9,431,000 8,728,000 5,753,000 5,574,000 9,242,904 8,702,237 5,817,400 105,000 349,000 264,000 144,000 1,288,000 1,344,000 723,000 615,000 -1,183,000 -995,000 -459,000 -471,000 5,925,000 11,510,000 12,065,000 12,015,000 32,474,000 35,362,000 38,610,000 38,868,000 6,695,000 6,059,000 4,480,000 4,541,000 5,501,000 9,435,000 8,723,000 5,758,000 -100,000 207,000 27,000 -99,000 207,000 27,000 -99,000 -100,000 12,720,000 17,362,000 16,518,000 16,655,000 0 0 0 0 -27,000 14,904 6,237 -39,600