Case StudyForecasting Football Game Attendance at Southwestern University

Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, 30 miles southwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, enrolls close to 20,000 students. In a typical towngown relationship, the school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents.

A longtime football powerhouse, SWU is a member of the Big Eleven conference and is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings. To bolster its chances of reaching the elusive and long-desired number-one ranking, in 2006 SWU hired the legendary Bo Pitterno as its head coach. Although the number-one ranking remained out of reach, attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior to Pitternos arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the new coachs arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to the big time!

The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking; it was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The table on the next page indicates attendance at each game for the past six years:

1	34,200	Baylor	36,100	Oklahoma	35,900	TCU
2*	39,800	Texas	40,200	Nebraska	46,500	Texas Tech
3	38,200	LSU	39,100	UCLA	43,100	Alaska
4**	26,900	Arkansas	25,300	Nevada	27,900	Arizona
5	35,100	USC	36,200	Ohio State	39,200	Rice

1	41,900	Arkansas	42,500	Indiana	46,900	LSU
2*	46,100	Missouri	48,200	North Texas	50,100	Texas
3	43,900	Florida	44,200	Texas A&M	45,900	Prairie View A&M
4**	30,100	Miami	33,900	Southern	36,300	Montana
5	40,500	Duke	47,800	Oklahoma	49,900	Arizona State
* Homecoming games. ** During the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular Southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance. Source:J. Heizer and B. Render.Operations Management, 10th ed., 2011. Reprinted by permission of Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ.

One of Pitternos demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Pitterno had wanted dormitories in the stadium, solely for his athletes, as an additional feature of any expansion.

SWUs president, Dr. Marty Starr, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would max out. He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $20 in 2012 and a 5% increase each year in future prices.

Discussion Questions

1. 1.Develop a forecasting model and justify its selection over other techniques. Project attendance through 2013.
2. 2.What revenues are to be expected in 2012 and 2013?
3. 3.Discuss the schools options.