Categorize Printup's three forecasting methods in terms of whether each is top-down or bottom-up. What considerations should be taken into account when making decisions about the package count What package size would you recommend How will it impact your choice of forecasting method and forecasting calculations (esp. the attached section)

Demand Forecasting confident that sales of Metabical will quickly take off once health care providers & overweight individuals understand the value proposition of new drug. Projected demand using three different approaches that are based on varying assumptions about how potential customers would respond to new drug looking at # of overweight individuals in US (BMI between 25&30). Then narrow down population to those who were actively trying to lose weight (35%, according to CSP study). again narrowed to the 15% of those who were comfortable with weight-loss drugs. Likely to capture 10% of those individuals in the 1st year. Metabical could expect an additional 5% and up to 30% by the 5th year. Test trials suggested that 60% of the 1st users would repurchase 2nd supply. 20% of these users would finish out the entire Metabical program by repurchasing the remaining supply.

more aggressive forecast that is using the results from the CSP survey that specifically addressed consumer interest in a prescription weight-loss drug for the overweight. The # of overweight individuals in the US, but this time is concentrated on the data point that 12% of the respondents who are ready to immediately go to their health care provider to request the prescription. The previously developed penetration guidelines (10% increasing by 5% per year) and the 60% 20% model for repeat purchases would also apply to this forecast scenario.

Focused on ideal target consumer. (educated FM, 35-65 of age with BMIs between 25&30.) Expected to capture a higher penetration of this ideal target (4.3 million potential users) than that of the general overweight population. Estimated that Metabical would capture 30% of the ideal target market in the first year, with a 5% increase in share each year (reaching up to 50% by year five). The 60%/20% model for repeat purchases would hold true for this group of as well.

Number of Americans with BMI between 25 and 30 x 35% actively trying to lose weight x 15% who are comfortable using diet pills 10% who might purchase Metabical in Year 1 adding 5% each subsequent year plus 60% buy a second package plus 20% of these buy a third package unit sales unit sales unit sales Salor nicolae Number of Americans with BMI between 25 and 30 x 35% actively trying to lose weight x 15% who are comfortable using diet pills 10% who might purchase Metabical in Year 1 adding 5% each subsequent year plus 60% buy a second package plus 20% of these buy a third package unit sales unit sales unit sales Salor nicolae