Chapter 4 Decision Analysis take Queen City Avenue if the expressway had a traffic jam. The followisg payoff table provides the one-way time estimate in minutes for taweling to or from work: Based on their experience with traffic problems, Rona and Jerry agreed ce a 0.15 probability that the expressway woald be jammed. In addition. they agreed that weather seemed to affect the traffic conditions on the expressway. Let C=clcarO=avercastR=nain The following conditaional probabilities apply: P(Cs1)=0.8P(Cs2)=0.1P(Os1)=0.2P(Os2)=0.3P(Rs1)=0.0P(Rs2)=0.6 a. Use Bayes' theorem for probability revision to cosnpete the peobability of each weather condition and the conditional probability of the expreswway open. x1, or janmed, x2. given each weather condition. b. Show the decision tree for this problem. c. What is the optimal decision strategy, and what is the expected travel time? 25. The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan. Michigan, plant or pershase the component purt from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the prodact. The follosing puyoff table shows the projected profit (in thousinds of dollars): The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1)=0.35,P(s2)=0.35, and P(x3)=0.30. a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to delermine whether Gomman should attempt to obtain a better eftimate of demand