Chapter 7 Data Exploration Question #4: How reliably does an inverted yield curve anticipate a recession? How far in advance? Plot from 1970 (as in Figure 7.9A) the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED code: GS10) and the three-month Treasury bill rate (FRED code: TB3MS). Discuss the variability of the time between an inversion of the yield curve and the subsequent recession.