1. Class Activity:As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Vancouver General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Heart Transplants	45	50	52	56	58	?

The director of medical services predicted six years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries.

1. Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of 0.6 and then with one of 0.9, to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.
2. Use a three-year moving average to forecast demand in year 4,5, and 6.
3. Use the trend-projection method to forecast demand in years 1 through 6.
4. With MAD as the criterion, which of the four forecasting methods is best?