Question
Company A wants to test three major forecasting techniques on a historical data that they have in terms of the forecasting accuracy on a certain
Company A wants to test three major forecasting techniques on a historical data that they have in terms of the forecasting accuracy on a certain products weekly sales data. They have recorded the sales values in the last 13 weeks and you can see the corresponding value of each week as a time series data in the below table.
Period | Actual |
1 | 352 |
2 | 324 |
3 | 338 |
4 | 400 |
5 | 360 |
6 | 263 |
7 | 276 |
8 | 396 |
9 | 309 |
10 | 300 |
11 | 327 |
12 | 371 |
13 | 287 |
Please use this historical data to perform the following actions:
Plot the time series as a scatter plot (4 pts)
Make forecasts starting from the 9th period for five periods using moving average method (you can choose n=5; that is the number of historical data points you should use in calculation) (4 pts)
Make forecasts starting from the 9th period for five periods using weighted moving average method (you can use the following weight scheme wt-1= 0.3, wt-2= 0.2, wt-3= 0.2, wt-4= 0.15, wt-5= 0.15 ) (4 pts)
Make forecasts starting from the 9th period for five periods using exponential smoothing method (you can use smoothing factor as 0.25 ) . (4 pts)
Calculate the accuracy metrics we covered in class for all the methods you used above. Make a comparison between the techniques. (HINT: The numbers in red italic is used for performance assessment. (3 pts)
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