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Company X has assets in place whose value next year depends upon the state of the economy: State of Economy Probability Asset Value Expansion 50%

Company X has assets in place whose value next year depends upon the state of the economy:

State of Economy

Probability

Asset Value

Expansion

50%

$350M

Recession

50%

$35M

Company X has $45M in cash that can either be invested today or paid out as a dividend to shareholders today.

Management is considering an investment project that would involve a $45M outlay today and would provide a safe cashflow of $66M one year from now. The appropriate rate to discount the projects future cashflow is 10%. What is the NPV of the project? Should Company take on the project?

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