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Company x wants to sell 1,000 ounces of copper next month. The current copper price is 100 per ounce. Copper price is forecasted for the

Company x wants to sell 1,000 ounces of copper next month. The current copper price is 100 per ounce. Copper price is forecasted for the next month as below:

Scenarios

Probability

Copper price ( / ounce)

Pessimistic

0.3

80

Expected

0.6

120

Optimistic

0.1

150

Required: Calculate the expected revenues if Company x :

a. Does not arrange a hedge, just sells at the market price.

b. Arranges a one-month future contract to deliver the copper at 115 per ounce.

c.Buys a one-month put option to sell the copper at 130 per ounce, accepting to pay a premium 10 per ounce.

Which course of action should Lonton adopt?

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