Question
Company XYT owns some land that has the potential to be an underground oil field. It costs $500,000 to drill for the oil. If there
Company XYT owns some land that has the potential to be an underground oil field. It costs $500,000 to drill for the oil. If there is oil, XYT will realize a payoff of $4,000,000 (not including drilling costs). With current information, XYT estimates that there is a 20% probability that oil is present on the site. An alternative for XYT is to sell the land as it is (without drilling) for $350,000 without further information about the likelihood of oil being present. Your decision criterion is the expected monetary value criterion.
Assume now that XYT can conduct geological tests at the site, costing $100,000. If the tests turn out to be positive, XYT can sell the land for $650,000 or drill the land with an 80% probability that oil exists (since the test is not perfect). If the test results are negative, XYT can sell the land for $50,000 or drill the land with a 5% probability to find oil.
Draw an influence diagram corresponding to the overall decision problem.
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