Computer Assignment 15 points

Case 7.1 Bubble Up Bottling Company

Prepare forecast for the soft drink industry using Classical Decomposition method.

Prepare market share forecast using Linear Regression method.

Calculate Bubble Up Company forecast by multiplying market share with industry forecast.

Prepare a 2 to 3 page report single space to present your analysis and attach computer printouts to the report.

Answer to Computer Assignment FAQ:

Question #1) How to calculate Bubble up company forecast?

Steps:

Calculate forecast for soft drink industry by using classical decomposition.

Calculate Bubble Up Company's market share of the industry sales using linear regression model.

Calculate Bubble Up company's forecast by taking market share percent of the industry sales. For example, if the industry sales for a quarter are 100,000 units and Bubble Up market share for the same quarter is 7%, then Bubble Up sales forecast for that quarter will be 7,000 units.

Question #2) How to write the report?

Submit the report (2 to 3 pages long) in the following format.

Executive Summary-- This is the summary of the report about one paragraph long.

Problem Definition-- Describe is your words what problem you are analyzing, e.g. forecasting industry sales and Bubble Up market share and then calculating Bubble Up sales forecast etc.

Solution Procedure-- Write about the models you are using and justify why that model is being used. For example, linear trend model should be used when the time series has linear trend.

Results-- Write the results of your analysis.

Conclusion and recommendation-- write any conclusions.

Note: You can read chapter 1 section 1.5 page 27 to get more ideas.

Attach computer outputs, graphs, charts to the report.

Case 1:	Bubble Up Bottling Company
The Bubble Up Bottling Company of Budapest, Hungary, is interested in forecasting sales
of Bubble Up over the next two years. The company has analyzed Bubble Up's market share
for its service area over the past 20 quarters. Market share has generally been growing as
indicated in the table B below.
During this same five year period, total soft drink sales in the region (as measured in
100,000s of cases) have been as in the table A below.
			Table A
			Year
Season	1	2	3	4	5
Winter	114	114	124	132	134
Spring	130	146	151	160	166
Summer	158	177	175	184	205
Fall	131	142	146	144	148
The company would like to forecast Bubble Up soft drink sales for years 6 and 7. To do so,
use a linear trend model to forecast market share for each quarter of years 6 and 7 and
seasonal model to forecast total soft drink sales in these periods. Then multiply
the forecast of total soft drink sales by Bubble Up's sales during this period.
Prepare a business report to Bubble Up management containing your forecast and
explaining your approach.
			Table B
	Year		Season	Bubble Up's Market Share (in Percent)
	1		Winter	6.42
	1		Spring	6.58
	1		Summer	6.99
	1		Fall	6.82
	2		Winter	6.64
	2		Spring	6.46
	2		Summer	6.7
	2		Fall	7
	3		Winter	6.7
	3		Spring	6.84
	3		Summer	6.78
	3		Fall	6.48
	4		Winter	6.93
	4		Spring	6.79
	4		Summer	6.83
	4		Fall	7.21
	5		Winter	7.73
	5		Spring	8.16
	5		Summer	8.36
	5		Fall	8.23