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Consider a European Put on underlying S with expiration T = 120 days and strike K = 92. We assume that the underlying asset follows
Consider a European Put on underlying S with expiration T = 120 days and strike K = 92. We assume that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian motion with growth rate alpha = 0.09 and volatility sigma = 0.25. Today the asset price is S_0 = 100. (a) Find the real-world probability that the Put will end up out-of-the-money. Express your answer in terms of the standard normal cdf Phi (middot). (b) Assuming interest rate of r = 0.05 and no dividends, find the risk-neutral probability that the Put will end up out-of-the-money. Explain which answer to either (a) or (b) is bigger
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